The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-11-17/housing-and-economy-headed-for-sustainable-recovery-first-time-homebuyers-lead-the-way/#ixzz0YN46kqLc

The federal tax credit for first-time buyers is “a huge motivator” for these buyers, and they may end their search if the Nov. 30 deadline arrives and they still have not closed on a deal.

Timing is everything for many first-time buyers today. For those who purchase a home this year, the tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price, up to $8,000. Those who have owned a home in the past three years aren’t eligible. Buyers also have to meet eligibility requirements regarding income; the current credit begins to phase out for singles who make more than $75,000 and couples who make more than $150,000.

Unless it is extended, this credit will expire on Nov. 30. We are seeing an increase in buyers wanting to get closed prior to the tax credit closing deadline. there is also an increase in sellers wanting to get their homes on the market and closed by this deadline.

Some real-estate agents and mortgage brokers are recommending that first-time buyers close no later than the week before Thanksgiving to ensure that no holiday-related office closings or abbreviated schedules interfere with the process. That means finalizing a purchase on or before Nov. 20. In fact, to make sure you can take advantage of the credit, it’s probably best to go under contract no later than the first or second week of October.

The National Association of Realtors reports that it’s taking about two months to complete a home sale in the current market, as lenders scrutinize borrower paperwork and issues with appraisals pop up. In short, first-time buyers probably need to select a property and make an offer by the end of this month. But rushing to meet the deadline is a double-edged sword. The purchase of a home—let alone your first one—isn’t a decision that should be taken lightly.

For buyers who don’t make the deadline, there is a chance the credit will be extended. There are at least 20 bills drafted regarding the credit; one-third of them have been introduced recently. Some proposals would not only extend the first-time buyer credit into next year, but would also expand it to include all home buyers, remove income restrictions and raise the maximum amount of the credit, up to $15,000.

By including all buyers, there could be more of a ripple effect as more Americans spend money on moving vans, lawn equipment — any items or services associated with making a move. NAR has been lobbying heavily for the extension. “The first priority is going to be to renew the $8,000 credit, but we have some good arguments for expanding it,” said Jerry Giovaniello, senior vice president and chief lobbyist for NAR. He argues that the credit doesn’t cost much but has a huge impact.

There is growing Capitol Hill support for the extension of the credit. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said it needs to be extended by the end of the year, according to a spokesman from his office. And Washington Research Group, a unit of securities firm Concept Capital, recently put the chance of extension at 60 percent.

Yet with Congress currently focusing on other issues, and concerns about the country’s rising deficit, some wonder how difficult it will be for housing to garner attention anytime soon.

If you’re a first-time buyer, however, waiting is a gamble. What you have in front of you now is a tax credit. After that, you don’t know what you have.

NAR estimates that about 1.8 million to 2 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the tax credit this year, and says that roughly 350,000 sales wouldn’t have taken place without the credit.

Homebuyers can make the most of several tax breaks that help lower their tax bill based on the purchase of an existing or new home. For instance:
-First-time homebuyers: The Recovery Act provides a credit of up to $8,000 if a taxpayer buys a home between Jan. 1, 2009 and Nov. 30, 2009. The homebuyer also must not have owned a home in the previous three years and the home must be the primary residence.
-Points: The points paid on a mortgage are generally deductible as interest if taxpayers paid enough of a down payment or earnest money at closing to cover the points. Homebuyers can deduct the points even if the seller paid them.
-PMI premiums: Buyers who make a down payment of less than 20% of the home’s cost usually pay private mortgage insurance (PMI). But the PMI premiums generally can be included in your home mortgage interest deduction.
-Job relocation: Taxpayers who moved due to a job change can deduct the cost of moving. In order to take the deduction, they must move within one year of starting the new job, work full-time at least 39 weeks during the first 12 months at the new location, and the new job must be at least 50 miles further than the old residence was from the old job. Qualified moving expenses include your out-of-pocket cost of moving yourself, your family, and belongings to the new location.

Owning a home

If a taxpayer typically has claimed the standard deduction, owning a home will likely mean itemizing for extra deductions. Some tax breaks for homeowners include:
-Mortgage interest: For most taxpayers, the biggest tax break comes from deducting mortgage interest. Taxpayers can deduct interest on up to $1 million of the loan used to buy, build, or make substantial improvements to a main or second home. Interest on a home equity loan up to $100,000 secured by the main or second home is deductible too.
-Real estate taxes: Taxpayers can deduct real property taxes they pay on real estate to their municipalities, whether made directly or through their lending company.
-Home improvements and energy credits: The Recovery Act gives incentives to homeowners making improvements and energy-efficient upgrades to their homes. Taxpayers can get credits for 30% of the cost of qualifying doors, windows, HVAC, water heaters, roofing and insulation, up to a maximum credit of $1,500. Solar energy and wind energy systems are each 30% of cost with no maximum.

Selling a home
Sellers won’t have to pay taxes on a profit up to $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for joint filers. Taxpayers must have lived in the home for at least two of the past five years to claim this exclusion. In some cases, taxpayers can claim a partial exclusion if they are selling due to a change in employment status, health reasons, divorce or other unforeseen circumstances.

Taxpayers whose homes were foreclosed may be able to exclude the mortgage debt that was forgiven in connection with the foreclosure. This provision applies to debt forgiven in calendar years 2007 through 2012, of up to $2 million is eligible for this exclusion ($1 million if married filing separately).

The entry-level market for detached single family homes in Hayward, CA has gone plain nuts.

Nuts might be good for squirrels but last time I checked, those cute, furry-tailed rodents don’t qualify as first-time home buyers. What’s all the fuss? I’ll explain the issues and implications at the end of this post, however, let me first set the stage.

Single family homes 1,200 square feet and smaller are flying off the market like pancakes off the grill during a lumberjack festival. Inventory is WAY down and sales are WAY up. In fact, in an unprecedented market maneuver, pending sales numbers are actually out pacing the supply of existing homes for sale. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that something is up and to agree that things can’t continue this way for long.

So where are we headed? Does this mean we’re at the bottom of this particular market? You tell me. It would appear that prices have stabilized and have been on a plateau for quite a while. There is a mere difference of $4,000.00 between the average sold price from November, 2008 until April, 2009. However, list prices are headed back up – a sure indicator that at least one group believes the market has turned – sellers.

As I’ve stated in other posts, the bottom of the market cannot be officially called until both Average Sales Prices AND Average Square Foot Prices are either flat or climbing.

While not yet perfectly level, the numbers are looking very, very good. We may not be at the absolute bottom, but we’re so close that if I was in a submarine, I’d be sounding the collision alarm and looking for something secure to hang on to.

Lastly we have Months of Inventory. A quick search on Google reveals many pundits stating that approximately 6 months of inventory indicates a level market. More inventory reveals a Buyer’s Market, less precludes a Seller’s Market. Anyone thinking we are still in Buyer’s Market in this category is simply in denial. True, we’ve not seen prices pounding back upward, but, from personal experience, I can tell you that almost every home in this group is ending up with multiple offers and is selling for over asking price. And here is a part of the rub – most of these homes go on the market with artificially low prices for the specific purpose of securing multiple offers and driving the prices back up again.

Here are 3 Critical Facts you need to know about this market:

1. We are running out of inventory at the bottom of the market.

There are a few reasons for this:

There was a hold on foreclosures from late 2008 until April 01, 2009. Although foreclosures are back on track, new properties have not yet hit the market in any kind of significant volume. That may change any moment.
Unprecedented numbers of buyers are hitting the market because of record low mortgage rates, rock bottom prices and good, old fashioned “spring fever.”
The $8,000.00 tax credit and its impending deadline are pushing buyers to cash in before it is too late. Even the confusion about whether or not the credit can be used for the down payment is fueling frenzies in some quarters.

2. Many homes are going pending that ARE NOT actually closing.

Because of the shrinking inventory, many buyers are starting to write on short sales – buyers that would’ve historically avoided them a brief 3-4 months ago. Once in contract, short sales show up as pendings, but take so long to close they actually mess up the pending numbers (that is the only way more homes can go pending than are actually on the market!). The success rate of short sales is somewhere between 10-20%, and they can take up to 9 months to close. To add to the confusion, many buyers submit an offer on a short sale, it gets marked pending, then those very same buyers go get offers accepted on OTHER short sales as well. While those escrows are slowly stewing in their short-sale crock pots, those same buyers actually go out and manage to get an REO into escrow! One buyer – three escrows? You betcha! You gotta know two of those escrows are NOT going to close, thus adding to the overall confusion in the current market.

3. Current list prices are artificially low.

Banks and their listing agents have figured out the “list low – sell high” strategy and are whipping it into an art form. Low ball offers on REOs are WAY gone unless it’s a dog of a property and has been sitting on the market an awfully long time. If you see something out there priced way too low to be real, guess what …

Lastly, remember that short sale listing agents are also pricing way below market value just to get you through the front door. Problem is, there is absolutely NO guarantee that the bank will actually sign off on the “list price” or your subsequent lower offer.

I believe this situation will be temporary.

We cannot continue to have more homes go pending than are actually coming on the market – this is supply and demand economics 101. Something has to give. I believe it will be supply: in my opinion, we are going to see a resurgence of foreclosed homes into the market in the near future that will level the playing field. Many of these will be existing short sales that have been sitting out there a long time. And in some cases, short sale homes, once foreclosed, will go back on the market at a higher price than their list prices as short sales. This is simply because they were priced far too low to begin so as to attract visitors and offers.

Bottom line: I personally do not believe homes at the bottom will go down much more in value, if at all. I believe homes in the upper end will be the ones taking the hit. And I also am going to predict that by mid-summer, we should be back to at least 3 months of inventory.

So how to respond to all of this?

Be a wise buyer. Cooler heads always prevail and make the money in markets like this while those who respond with panic end up losers every time. Set a limit and stick to it – it may be a while before you land a house, but with careful work and due diligence, you will find one that you can finally call “home.”

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions

and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase

was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales-including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-rose 2.4 percent to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66

million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very

affordable even with a recent uptick in rates. First-time buyers also are being drawn off the

sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in

sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales

indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that

keep buyers from getting a loan.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale,

which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in

April.

The appraisal problem is serious. Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a

neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales. In the past

month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts

falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further

rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.

A NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29% of transactions, and that

the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago.

The NATIONAL MEDIAN existing-home price for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8% from a

year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33% of all sales in May from 45% in April,

continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to

traditional homes.

First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed

sales.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a

pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0% below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000

units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9% below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9% from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0% in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4% below May

2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4% lower than a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9%

below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9% from May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8%

higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6% from a year ago.