Lesson learned!

This is a UTUBE video I thought you all would like. I thought it was funny and entertaining. It hits close to home in regards to bank owned homes and the “foreclosure specialists” assigned to list them..

Foreclosure filings were reported on 336,173 U.S. properties in June, the fourth straight monthly total exceeding 300,000 and helping to boost the second quarter total to the highest quarterly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005. Foreclosure filings were reported on 889,829 U.S. properties in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 11 percent from the previous quarter and a 20 percent increase from the second quarter of 2008.

“In spite of the industry-wide moratorium earlier this year, along with local, state and national legislative action and increased levels of loan modification activity, foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

“Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of
borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes’ are now worth represent
a potentially significant future risk. Stemming the tide of foreclosures is a critical component to stabilizing the housing market, so it is imperative that the lending industry and the government work in tandem to find new approaches to address this issue.”

Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
More than 6 percent of Nevada housing units (one in 16) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, giving it the nation’s highest foreclosure rate during the six-month period. A total of 68,708 Nevada properties received a foreclosure filing from January to June, an increase of 23 percent from the previous six months and an increase of 61 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in the first half of 2009, with 3.37 percent of its housing units (one in 30) receiving at least one foreclosure filing, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate, with 3.08 percent of its housing units (one in 33) receiving at least one foreclosure filing. Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were California (2.94 percent), Utah (1.46 percent), Georgia (1.42 percent), Michigan (1.34 percent), Illinois (1.31 percent), Idaho (1.26 percent) and Colorado (1.25 percent).

California, Florida, Arizona post highest foreclosure totals
A total of 391,611 California properties received a foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, the nation’s highest total and 2.94 percent of the state’s housing units (one in 34) – the nation’s fourth highest state foreclosure rate. California foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased nearly 14 percent from the previous six months and increased nearly 15 percent from the first half of 2008.

With 268,064 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009, Florida documented the second highest state total. Florida foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 7 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 42 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona’s 89,799 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009 was the third highest state total. Arizona foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 13 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 55 percent from the first half of 2008.Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Illinois (68,932), Nevada (68,708), Michigan (60,786), Ohio (58,937), Georgia (56,391), Texas (49,144) and Virginia (28,368).

Report methodology
The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the first half of the year at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population.

RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default – Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction – Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS) and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during six-month period, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.

The entry-level market for detached single family homes in Hayward, CA has gone plain nuts.

Nuts might be good for squirrels but last time I checked, those cute, furry-tailed rodents don’t qualify as first-time home buyers. What’s all the fuss? I’ll explain the issues and implications at the end of this post, however, let me first set the stage.

Single family homes 1,200 square feet and smaller are flying off the market like pancakes off the grill during a lumberjack festival. Inventory is WAY down and sales are WAY up. In fact, in an unprecedented market maneuver, pending sales numbers are actually out pacing the supply of existing homes for sale. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that something is up and to agree that things can’t continue this way for long.

So where are we headed? Does this mean we’re at the bottom of this particular market? You tell me. It would appear that prices have stabilized and have been on a plateau for quite a while. There is a mere difference of $4,000.00 between the average sold price from November, 2008 until April, 2009. However, list prices are headed back up – a sure indicator that at least one group believes the market has turned – sellers.

As I’ve stated in other posts, the bottom of the market cannot be officially called until both Average Sales Prices AND Average Square Foot Prices are either flat or climbing.

While not yet perfectly level, the numbers are looking very, very good. We may not be at the absolute bottom, but we’re so close that if I was in a submarine, I’d be sounding the collision alarm and looking for something secure to hang on to.

Lastly we have Months of Inventory. A quick search on Google reveals many pundits stating that approximately 6 months of inventory indicates a level market. More inventory reveals a Buyer’s Market, less precludes a Seller’s Market. Anyone thinking we are still in Buyer’s Market in this category is simply in denial. True, we’ve not seen prices pounding back upward, but, from personal experience, I can tell you that almost every home in this group is ending up with multiple offers and is selling for over asking price. And here is a part of the rub – most of these homes go on the market with artificially low prices for the specific purpose of securing multiple offers and driving the prices back up again.

Here are 3 Critical Facts you need to know about this market:

1. We are running out of inventory at the bottom of the market.

There are a few reasons for this:

There was a hold on foreclosures from late 2008 until April 01, 2009. Although foreclosures are back on track, new properties have not yet hit the market in any kind of significant volume. That may change any moment.
Unprecedented numbers of buyers are hitting the market because of record low mortgage rates, rock bottom prices and good, old fashioned “spring fever.”
The $8,000.00 tax credit and its impending deadline are pushing buyers to cash in before it is too late. Even the confusion about whether or not the credit can be used for the down payment is fueling frenzies in some quarters.

2. Many homes are going pending that ARE NOT actually closing.

Because of the shrinking inventory, many buyers are starting to write on short sales – buyers that would’ve historically avoided them a brief 3-4 months ago. Once in contract, short sales show up as pendings, but take so long to close they actually mess up the pending numbers (that is the only way more homes can go pending than are actually on the market!). The success rate of short sales is somewhere between 10-20%, and they can take up to 9 months to close. To add to the confusion, many buyers submit an offer on a short sale, it gets marked pending, then those very same buyers go get offers accepted on OTHER short sales as well. While those escrows are slowly stewing in their short-sale crock pots, those same buyers actually go out and manage to get an REO into escrow! One buyer – three escrows? You betcha! You gotta know two of those escrows are NOT going to close, thus adding to the overall confusion in the current market.

3. Current list prices are artificially low.

Banks and their listing agents have figured out the “list low – sell high” strategy and are whipping it into an art form. Low ball offers on REOs are WAY gone unless it’s a dog of a property and has been sitting on the market an awfully long time. If you see something out there priced way too low to be real, guess what …

Lastly, remember that short sale listing agents are also pricing way below market value just to get you through the front door. Problem is, there is absolutely NO guarantee that the bank will actually sign off on the “list price” or your subsequent lower offer.

I believe this situation will be temporary.

We cannot continue to have more homes go pending than are actually coming on the market – this is supply and demand economics 101. Something has to give. I believe it will be supply: in my opinion, we are going to see a resurgence of foreclosed homes into the market in the near future that will level the playing field. Many of these will be existing short sales that have been sitting out there a long time. And in some cases, short sale homes, once foreclosed, will go back on the market at a higher price than their list prices as short sales. This is simply because they were priced far too low to begin so as to attract visitors and offers.

Bottom line: I personally do not believe homes at the bottom will go down much more in value, if at all. I believe homes in the upper end will be the ones taking the hit. And I also am going to predict that by mid-summer, we should be back to at least 3 months of inventory.

So how to respond to all of this?

Be a wise buyer. Cooler heads always prevail and make the money in markets like this while those who respond with panic end up losers every time. Set a limit and stick to it – it may be a while before you land a house, but with careful work and due diligence, you will find one that you can finally call “home.”

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions

and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase

was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales-including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-rose 2.4 percent to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66

million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very

affordable even with a recent uptick in rates. First-time buyers also are being drawn off the

sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in

sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales

indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that

keep buyers from getting a loan.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale,

which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in

April.

The appraisal problem is serious. Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a

neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales. In the past

month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts

falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further

rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.

A NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29% of transactions, and that

the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago.

The NATIONAL MEDIAN existing-home price for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8% from a

year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33% of all sales in May from 45% in April,

continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to

traditional homes.

First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed

sales.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a

pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0% below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000

units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9% below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9% from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0% in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4% below May

2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4% lower than a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9%

below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9% from May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8%

higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6% from a year ago.

The plan He’s expected to announce will be to use $50 billion or more in Wall Street rescue money authorized last year, to provide subsidies for when banks reduce interest rates to lower the monthly payments for many Americans (who got into bad loans they did not understand or have lost their jobs due to the current bad economy ) who are now struggling to pay.

The plan, (to subsidize banks) which has yet to be formally announced, would serve as the carrot for banks to help homeowners stay in their homes and halt foreclosures, so there would not only be help to stop the losses for individuals and the banks, but also stop the foreclosures from dragging down the values of nearby homes.

The prevoius vountary efforts during the bush administration_Hope for homeowners and the federal Housing Administration’s FHA Secure that the banks joined have resulted in relatively few mortgage modifications.

Now the stick part, of the Carrot and stick approach is they will have a stick waved at them if they don’t comply with the subsidy plan. It will come in the form of Obama’s support for legislation pending in Congress that would allow bankruptcy court judges to modify the terms of a mortgage.

Right now that is forbidden, and banks and other lending institutions fiercely oppose what they call "cram down" legislation, saying that it willl bring uncertainty for lenders, who will respond by restricting mortgage lending.

If passed, it will mean that banks will have to soon choose between the lesser of two evils. They could either modify loans (with a subsidy) to provide lower lending rates, and lose what they might have made from the higher lending rate over the life of the loan. Or they can do nothing and a homeowner could file for bankruptcy and then have a judge order new loan terms that allow the borrower to stay in the home, and pay the lender less money.

The Obama administration isn’t providing details, but it promises a serious new approach.

"Ten thousand people face foreclosure every day in this country. And it’s a problem that not only affects the individual homeowner and their family, but oftentimes has a direct impact to home values in the neighborhood that that house or homes are on," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Tuesday. "This is a tremendously important part of what the president believes has to be done next in order to move our economy forward."

More than 2.3 million mortgages entered foreclosure proceedings last year, and by year’s end almost one in 10 mortgages in the U.S. were either delinquent or in foreclosure. Some prominent economists such as Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein think that one in five homes nationwide is worth less than the mortgage that was arranged to purchase

More than 80 builders from across the country converged on Capitol Hill yesterday to meet with the congressional leadership and key members of the banking and tax writing committees to convey the message that a housing stimulus is urgently needed and that restoring demand for housing is the fastest and most effective way of reviving the economy.

The key ingredients to the recovery plan call for Congress to support enhancements to the home buyer tax credit, to provide below-market interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and to continue foreclosure prevention measures such as those advocated by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair.

Underscoring the urgency of the situation, in a briefing to builders before their meetings with lawmakers, NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn said: "Our industry stands at a crossroads and our efforts here today are vital to the housing industry’s ability to weather this storm and come out the other side healthy and in a position to grow."

"Congress must understand that housing is central to the economic crisis, that housing has led our nation out of past recessions and that it can do so again," she added.

"Over the next year, the stimulus plan will increase economic activity in every state as vacant homes are absorbed, households are able to relocate to new jobs, home values are stabilized and local property tax revenues return to their pre-recessionary levels," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

This year alone, Crowe said the plan would result in 200,000 additional new home sales, 1 million more existing home sales and a boost in expected housing starts from 649,000 to 908,000, on par with last year’s level.

In addition, the plan this year would create more than 539,000 jobs, generating $26 billion in wages and salaries, $21 billion in business income and $28 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues.

Under Bair’s plan, the federal government would provide $24 billion in loan guarantees that could help as many as 1.5 million home owners modify their existing mortgages and avoid foreclosure.

Putting the situation in starker terms, Crowe said that barring any significant federal action, 4 million strapped borrowers could lose their homes this year. "There are at least 1.5 million excess empty homes on the market today. That does not include homes people live in and want to sell," he said.

In order to stabilize the marketplace and put a floor under declining home values, NAHB and the Fix Housing First coalition are calling on Congress to pass short-term, targeted incentives that spur demand and encourage Americans to buy homes.

Specifically, a temporary, expanded home buyer tax credit is needed to reduce excess inventory and encourage fence sitters to enter the market. The Fix Housing First legislative proposal calls on Congress to enact a stimulus plan that would reduces mortgage interest rates to as low as 2.99% on 30-year fixed-rate conventional loans purchased between Jan. 1, 2009 and June 30, 2009. The interest rate would be 3.99% for contracts that close between July 1, 2009 and Dec. 31, 2009.

At the same time, lawmakers need to make the current $7,500 home buyer tax credit much bigger and better, eliminating its current recapture provision and making it available to all purchasers. The coalition is calling for a credit amounting to 10% of the home’s price, capped at 3.5% of local FHA loan limits. This would range between $10,000 and $22,000.

The key is basing the credit amount on prices in each locality.

"Obviously, you don’t need a $22,000 credit in Bozeman, Mont. but a $22,000 credit will just get you into the marketplace in California," said Howard.

The tax credit and interest rate buy-down are not new ideas, Howard added. "Congress enacted a similar housing solution in the mid-1970s when the nation was in recession. The plan led us out of recession then, and it can do it again."

Bolstering the visits to Capitol Hill, more than 17,000 telephone calls and e-mails in support of the Fix Housing First proposal were received by the Congress from members of NAHB and the coalition.

To learn more about the coalition, go to www.fixhousingfirst.com.

"Despite the efforts of both the private and public sectors, the foreclosure rate remains very high, with adverse consequences for both those directly involved and for the economy in general, addressing a Fed conference on the housing and mortgage markets, Bernanke said, "More needs to be done."

His comments came the after reports surfaced that the Treasury Department is weighing new steps that could reduce some mortgage rates below 5%. Mortgage Bankers Association reported record mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures from July to September.

2009 National Association of Realtors® President Charles McMillan said, "We are happy that the leadership of the Treasury Department is seriously considering the actions we discussed to lower interest rates. The result of such action will help the nation’s economic recovery and bring stability to the housing market." NAR estimates that lowering the mortgage interest rate by 1 to 2 percentage points can result in up to an additional 800,000 home sales. Housing has always led our economy out of downturns and lower interest rates are key to bringing home buyers back to the market."

According to the MBA, (Mortgage Bankers Association) National Delinquency Survey, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 6.99% of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2008, up 58 basis points from the second quarter of 2008, and up 140 basis points from one year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.07%, down one basis point from last quarter and up 29 basis points from one year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
 

The seasonally adjusted total delinquency rate continues to be the highest recorded in the MBA survey. The increase in the overall delinquency rate was driven by increases in the number of loans 90 or more days past due, primarily in California and Florida. The 30 day delinquency percentage remains below levels seen as recently as 2002.

What’s more, "While much of the mortgage problem in some states continues to be overbuilding, poor underwriting and incorrect credit pricing, fundamental economic factors are becoming more important," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Economics. "The 30-day delinquency rate is still lower than it was in the 2001 recession, but job losses are mounting. We have not gone into past recessions with the housing market as weak as it is now so it is likely that a much higher percentage of delinquencies caused by job losses will go to foreclosure than we have seen in the past."

Usually, the job of the Fed chairman is to fight inflation and ensure that the economy is growing. However, problems in housing have contaminated financial markets and the broader economy, and they help explain why Bernanke took the unusual step of calling for aggressive steps to end the housing slump.

"Significant efforts have been taken in this direction, but more can be done," he said.

A. The Fed chairman said that as many as 20% of homeowners now might be "underwater" or have negative equity; that is, they owe more than their homes are worth. In addition, he said, lenders are expected to have started 2.25 million foreclosures this year, a staggering number when compared with the pre-crisis average of fewer than 1 million foreclosures a year.

A. The Fed said last month that it would begin buying up to $100 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, and would buy up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie, the mortgage finance giants that the government seized in September. These mortgage-backed securities are the pooled and packaged mortgages that are sold to investors in a secondary market. Since investors want no part of them, the government is stepping in as the buyer of last resort in hopes of thawing this frozen market.

A. The Federal Housing Administration is offering FHA Secure, which enables some homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages that are about to jump to higher rates to get long-term, fixed-rate loans. Congress recently passed the Hope for Homeowners Act, which allows some troubled mortgages to be refinanced into FHA loans if the lenders are willing to take losses and write down the mortgage balances. The FHA Secure program is limited in reach, and Hope for Homeowners hasn’t proved to be very attractive to lenders, who’re unwilling to take losses.

A. Industry sources suggest that the Treasury is weighing an idea that would have Fannie and Freddie purchase new government-guaranteed mortgages that carry interest rates as low as 4.5%, a full percentage point below the current rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. This could help borrowers take out larger loans at lower rates, potentially arresting the fall in home prices in areas such as California and the Northeast, where home prices are higher. The plan could prove to be controversial because it would exclude refinanced mortgages from these low rates.

A. Bernanke called for more principal write-downs by lenders, on the presumption that more homeowners are finding themselves with negative equity the longer the national housing skid continues. He suggested changes to the Hope for Homeowners effort, such as lowering the upfront insurance premium that lenders pay, by law 3% of a home’s principal value. Congress also could lower the 1.5% annual premiums that borrowers pay.

In addition, he said, Congress could reduce the interest rates that borrowers would pay under the new Hope for Homeowners loan, now set at 8%. The rate is high because the mortgages are underlying collateral in securities issued by Ginnie Mae, and there’s limited demand for this government-issued debt. The Treasury could buy the Ginnie Mae securities, thus creating space for lower mortgage rates.

A. Bernanke didn’t offer any price tags, but he signaled that any approach is going to be costly and probably will favor some homeowners over others.

A. Yes, and Bernanke thinks that this effort, too, can be expanded. The FDIC is modifying distressed mortgages held by the troubled banks it’s taken over, creating a standardized approach called "Loan Mod in a Box."

Although it’s a limited universe of mortgages, the approach gets mortgage payments to within 38% or less of a borrower’s monthly income, often by stretching a loan into a 40-year fixed-rate mortgage. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair wants this to become a nationwide approach, but she faces resistance from the Treasury, which thinks it’s too costly.

Bernanke suggested that this effort could be expanded to have the lender modify the mortgage and reduce costs to 38% of income, and where necessary the government would eat the cost of reducing the loan-to-income ratio down to 31%. Bair and Bernanke seek to make existing loans more affordable so that homeowners stay out of foreclosure and don’t drag their neighborhoods’ home values down further.

A. That’s yet another option suggested by Bernanke, who said the government could simply buy up all delinquent mortgages or those considered at risk because of sliding home prices in hard-hit areas.

These loans would be bought at depressed market value and could make money for the government when home prices rebound. The Treasury already has studied this, the Fed chief said, since the original purpose of October’s $700 billion Wall Street rescue was to help get bad mortgages off bank balance sheets.