Hi All,  I am re-posting this article written by Steve Cook…..or is it Nick at nick does loans?  Either way it is well written and informative.  It sounds to me as if the buyers who are on the fence better jump off and jump in if they want to get in at the bottom…………

In two years Real Estate will rock!

Written by: Steven Cook

Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

• The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.
• Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;
• Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments;

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.

The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, said ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. “While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector – the investors’ darling for the past two years – is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround – albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.

Related articles

• 2014 Real Estate Forecast, but What About Now? (lanacordier.wordpress.com)
• Forecast Upbeat on Housing Recovery (susiecammett.wordpress.com)

(Market Watch)-New construction of U.S. houses expanded for the second straight month in June after hitting a record low in April, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Starts rose 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted 582,000 annualized units stronger than the 531,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by Market Watch. This is the highest level of starts since last November.

Starts of new single-family homes rose by 14.4% to 470,000 in June, while starts of large apartment units fell 29.4% to 101,000. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000. This is the highest level of permits since December.

The monthly CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence (HWMI) New Home Sales and Pricing Report showed that sales in new-home communities of 10 units or more were 26 percent below May 2008, but is improved from the 31 percent decline in the prior month and is the fourth consecutive month of that improvement trend.

During May, 3,019 new homes and condominiums were sold in the subdivisions tracked by Costa Mesa-based HWMI, compared to 4,094 in May 2008. Sales of single family homes were down by 30 percent, while sales of townhomes and “plexes” – duplexes, triplexes, etc. – were down 24 percent and sales of condominiums were off by 16 percent.

Compared with the same period last year, the median base price of homes sold dropped by 5 percent.

Non-seasonally adjusted total new-home sales were 9 percent higher than levels seen last month. This is an improvement from a year ago when the April-May interval was a decline of 6 percent. While sales volume is still approximately one quarter off year-ago levels, the steadily shrinking year-over-year sales declines suggest the market is stabilizing.

Jonathan Dienhart, Director of Published Research for HWMI, notes the recent month-to-month increases are a positive sign.

“Typically March is the strongest selling month of the year, not May,” said Dienhart. “The incremental gains since March are counter to this typical seasonal trend, which suggests the market has found the bottom and is truly stabilizing, albeit slowly. But with the state tax credits for home purchases running out and continued troubles in the broader economy, it is not yet clear that an actual recovery is at hand.”

Robert Rivinius, CBIA’s President and CEO, agreed, and added that the continued weakness in the new-home market means that policy-makers need to reduce government fees and restrictions – and to stop trying to impose additional barriers.

“State and local governments must remember that we need to be building more new homes and apartments – not less – to meet the demand caused by our steadily growing population. Many communities have actually reduced impact fees in order to accommodate new housing, we must see more of that, and the continuation of the state tax credit will be critical to sustaining the improvements in the marketplace,” said Rivinius.

The entry-level market for detached single family homes in Hayward, CA has gone plain nuts.

Nuts might be good for squirrels but last time I checked, those cute, furry-tailed rodents don’t qualify as first-time home buyers. What’s all the fuss? I’ll explain the issues and implications at the end of this post, however, let me first set the stage.

Single family homes 1,200 square feet and smaller are flying off the market like pancakes off the grill during a lumberjack festival. Inventory is WAY down and sales are WAY up. In fact, in an unprecedented market maneuver, pending sales numbers are actually out pacing the supply of existing homes for sale. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that something is up and to agree that things can’t continue this way for long.

So where are we headed? Does this mean we’re at the bottom of this particular market? You tell me. It would appear that prices have stabilized and have been on a plateau for quite a while. There is a mere difference of $4,000.00 between the average sold price from November, 2008 until April, 2009. However, list prices are headed back up – a sure indicator that at least one group believes the market has turned – sellers.

As I’ve stated in other posts, the bottom of the market cannot be officially called until both Average Sales Prices AND Average Square Foot Prices are either flat or climbing.

While not yet perfectly level, the numbers are looking very, very good. We may not be at the absolute bottom, but we’re so close that if I was in a submarine, I’d be sounding the collision alarm and looking for something secure to hang on to.

Lastly we have Months of Inventory. A quick search on Google reveals many pundits stating that approximately 6 months of inventory indicates a level market. More inventory reveals a Buyer’s Market, less precludes a Seller’s Market. Anyone thinking we are still in Buyer’s Market in this category is simply in denial. True, we’ve not seen prices pounding back upward, but, from personal experience, I can tell you that almost every home in this group is ending up with multiple offers and is selling for over asking price. And here is a part of the rub – most of these homes go on the market with artificially low prices for the specific purpose of securing multiple offers and driving the prices back up again.

Here are 3 Critical Facts you need to know about this market:

1. We are running out of inventory at the bottom of the market.

There are a few reasons for this:

There was a hold on foreclosures from late 2008 until April 01, 2009. Although foreclosures are back on track, new properties have not yet hit the market in any kind of significant volume. That may change any moment.
Unprecedented numbers of buyers are hitting the market because of record low mortgage rates, rock bottom prices and good, old fashioned “spring fever.”
The $8,000.00 tax credit and its impending deadline are pushing buyers to cash in before it is too late. Even the confusion about whether or not the credit can be used for the down payment is fueling frenzies in some quarters.

2. Many homes are going pending that ARE NOT actually closing.

Because of the shrinking inventory, many buyers are starting to write on short sales – buyers that would’ve historically avoided them a brief 3-4 months ago. Once in contract, short sales show up as pendings, but take so long to close they actually mess up the pending numbers (that is the only way more homes can go pending than are actually on the market!). The success rate of short sales is somewhere between 10-20%, and they can take up to 9 months to close. To add to the confusion, many buyers submit an offer on a short sale, it gets marked pending, then those very same buyers go get offers accepted on OTHER short sales as well. While those escrows are slowly stewing in their short-sale crock pots, those same buyers actually go out and manage to get an REO into escrow! One buyer – three escrows? You betcha! You gotta know two of those escrows are NOT going to close, thus adding to the overall confusion in the current market.

3. Current list prices are artificially low.

Banks and their listing agents have figured out the “list low – sell high” strategy and are whipping it into an art form. Low ball offers on REOs are WAY gone unless it’s a dog of a property and has been sitting on the market an awfully long time. If you see something out there priced way too low to be real, guess what …

Lastly, remember that short sale listing agents are also pricing way below market value just to get you through the front door. Problem is, there is absolutely NO guarantee that the bank will actually sign off on the “list price” or your subsequent lower offer.

I believe this situation will be temporary.

We cannot continue to have more homes go pending than are actually coming on the market – this is supply and demand economics 101. Something has to give. I believe it will be supply: in my opinion, we are going to see a resurgence of foreclosed homes into the market in the near future that will level the playing field. Many of these will be existing short sales that have been sitting out there a long time. And in some cases, short sale homes, once foreclosed, will go back on the market at a higher price than their list prices as short sales. This is simply because they were priced far too low to begin so as to attract visitors and offers.

Bottom line: I personally do not believe homes at the bottom will go down much more in value, if at all. I believe homes in the upper end will be the ones taking the hit. And I also am going to predict that by mid-summer, we should be back to at least 3 months of inventory.

So how to respond to all of this?

Be a wise buyer. Cooler heads always prevail and make the money in markets like this while those who respond with panic end up losers every time. Set a limit and stick to it – it may be a while before you land a house, but with careful work and due diligence, you will find one that you can finally call “home.”

Moving from their dream home is something the Brannans never thought would happen, but the economic crisis has caused them to make many tough decisions. They came to the conclusion that raffling off their 6,000 sq. ft.
home was the only reasonable solution.

In addition to offering people an opportunity to win this home for just $10, the couple states that a portion of the proceeds from the drawing will benefit The Mission of St. Francis, a charitable organization in Ft. Lauderdale. According to Miles Brannan, “The Mission of St. Francis is a wonderful organization that helps individuals suffering from addictions by providing them housing and helping them find jobs to get back on their feet.

We’ve all been hit hard by the poor economy lately, and I feel The Mission is really making a difference in people’s lives. So a portion of the proceeds will go to the Mission to aid in their efforts.”

The Florida home’s spacious open floor plan includes 6 bedrooms and 6.5 baths. The master suite is 1,000 square feet and has a second story balcony overlooking the waterway. The estate also has a theater room with a 120?
screen, 4 car garage, and beautiful winding staircase. I

Only 300,000 tickets will be sold for this raffle, and the drawing will take place once all tickets have been sold. Once the drawing has taken place the winner will be notified within 24 hours by phone, e-mail or certified mail.
Winners do not need to be present to win. All monies collected will be held by Chicago Title Insurance Agency, Inc.

For more information, visit www.floridaluxuryauctions.com.

Why the recent run-up in rates? Over the past month or two, the economic skies have brightened somewhat, and the threat of trillion-dollar budget deficits for the foreseeable future, the potential for significant inflation, and few clues as to how the government might extricate itself from intrusions into markets created a landscape that was not appealing to investors.

Now, rates are retreating partly because inflation doesn’t seem as immediate as investors feared. In my opinion, nothing fundamentally has changed in the economy over recent weeks to warrant the rate rise, yet he expects volatility through the remainder of the year as investors debate the economy’s health. Realistically, I think that the rates will drift under 5% again. It may take a month, may take two months.

It’s also important, however, to realize that extremely low rates likely won’t be around forever. Luckily, we have seen rates drop some this week, which should help many consumers breathe a little easier. But the fact remains, the government’s plan of purchasing mortgage-backed securities cannot go on indefinitely, and when it ends, we will most certainly see a spike in rates. The hope is that the Fed can keep rates low long enough to kick-start a housing recovery. Whether that will work remains to be seen.

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions

and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase

was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales-including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-rose 2.4 percent to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66

million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very

affordable even with a recent uptick in rates. First-time buyers also are being drawn off the

sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in

sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales

indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that

keep buyers from getting a loan.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale,

which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in

April.

The appraisal problem is serious. Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a

neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales. In the past

month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts

falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further

rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.

A NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29% of transactions, and that

the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago.

The NATIONAL MEDIAN existing-home price for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8% from a

year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33% of all sales in May from 45% in April,

continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to

traditional homes.

First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed

sales.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a

pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0% below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000

units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9% below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9% from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0% in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4% below May

2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4% lower than a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9%

below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9% from May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8%

higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6% from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7% to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2% above April 2008 when it was 87.5.

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6% to 78.9 in April and is 0.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8% to 90.4 and is 11.1% above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2% to 93.0 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8% to 94.8 but is 2.9% below April 2008.

There are numerous buyer assistance programs around the country. Some states are offering bridge loans that allow first-time buyers to use the tax credit for downpayment and closing costs, but there are many other local government and nonprofit programs available to buyers, depending on location.

Just last week, HUD announced that qualifying buyers can use the tax credit for closing costs on FHA loans, to buy down the interest rate or make a larger downpayment. Buyers who are wondering about their options should contact a Realtor®, who can advise consumers on the housing assistance programs and resources available in a given area.

NAR’s (national asso. of realtors) Housing Affordability Index is in record territory. The affordability index rose to 174.8 in April from an upwardly revised 171.9 in March, and was the second highest monthly reading on record after peaking at 176.9 in January of this year. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income; tracking began in 1970.

A median-income family, earning $60,900, could afford a home costing $296,800 in April with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of that amount. The affordable price was well above the median existing single-family home price in April, which was $169,800.

The relationship between contracts on pending home sales and closings on existing-home sales is taking longer than in the past for several reasons, Mortgage processing time has increased, it is taking many months to close on those homes requiring short sales with lender approval, and some sales are falling through at the last moment.

The total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve but with dramatic local market variation in the timing of recovery. The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline.

For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org.

Most homeowner’s insurance policiesnincludenboth property and liability coverage. The property section covers damage to your possessions, home, garage or other structures on your property. It also covers offsite housing if you must move out of your house while repairs are being made. Personal property coverage will usually pay 50% of replacement value, although there may be a limit on such items as jewelry.

Most lenders require that you have Insurance (which is typically based on market value) before you close. Because the market value is a broad figure that doesn’t take specific features into account, chances are it’s much less than what your actual costs would be. Market value is based on such factors as the age and condition of your home, and the value of comparable homes in your area.

If you have any questions about the real estate industry, call me. As your real estate professional, I would be happy to help you with all of your real estate needs.

The Second Lien Program, one of the new details, will work together with first lien modifications offered under the Home Affordable Modification Program to deliver a more conclusive, affordability solution for struggling borrowers. Second mortgages can create huge challenges, even when a first lien is modified. Up to 50% of at-risk mortgages have second liens, and many properties in foreclosure have more than one lien. The second mortgage always has a higher interest rate than the first lien.

Under the Second Lien Program, when a Home Affordable Modification is initiated on a first mortgage lien, servicers participating in the Second Lien Program will automatically reduce payments on the second lien according to a pre-set protocol. Alternatively, servicers will have the option to extinguish the second lien in return for a lump sum payment under a pre-set formula determined by Treasury.

Separately, the Administration has also announced steps to join the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) Hope for Homeowners with Making Home Affordable. Hope for Homeowners requires the holder of the mortgage to accept a payoff below the current market value of the home, allowing the borrower to refinance into a new FHA-guaranteed loan. Refinancing into a new loan below the home’s market value removes a borrower from a position of being “underwater” to having equity in their home. By increasing a homeowner’s equity in the home, Hope for Homeowners can produce a better outcome for borrowers who qualify.

Under the recently announced changes and, when qualifying borrowers for a Home Affordable Modification, servicers will be required to determine eligibility for a Hope for Homeowners refinancing. Where Hope for Homeowners proves to be viable, the servicer must offer this option to the borrower. To ensure proper alignment of incentives, servicers and lenders will receive pay-for-success payments for Hope for Homeowners refinancings similar to those offered for Home Affordable Modifications. These additional supports are designed to work together and take effect with the improved and expanded program under consideration by Congress. The Administration supports legislation to strengthen Hope for Homeowners so that it can function effectively as an integral part of the Making Home Affordable Program.

Making Home Affordable, a comprehensive plan to stabilize the U.S. housing market, was first announced by the Administration on February 18. The three part program includes aggressive measures to support low mortgage rates by strengthening confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; a Home Affordable Refinance Program, which will provide new access to refinancing for up to 4 to 5 million homeowners; and a Home Affordable Modification Program, which will reduce monthly payments on existing first lien mortgages for up to 3 to 4 million at-risk homeowners. Two weeks later, the Administration published detailed guidelines for the Home Affordable Modification Program and authorized servicers to begin modifications under the plan immediately. Twelve servicers, including the five largest, have now signed contracts and begun modifications under the program. Between loans covered by these servicers and loans owned or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, more than 75% of all loans in the country are now covered by the Making Home Affordable Program.

Continuing to bolster its outreach around the program, the Administration also announced a new effort to engage directly with homeowners via MakingHomeAffordable.gov. Homeowners will have the ability to submit individual questions through the website to the Administration’s housing team. Members of the Treasury and HUD staffs will periodically select commonly asked questions and post responses on MakingHomeAffordable.gov.

For more information, visit www.MakingHomeAffordable.gov.