Hi All,  I am re-posting this article written by Steve Cook…..or is it Nick at nick does loans?  Either way it is well written and informative.  It sounds to me as if the buyers who are on the fence better jump off and jump in if they want to get in at the bottom…………

In two years Real Estate will rock!

Written by: Steven Cook

Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

• The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.
• Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;
• Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments;

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.

The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, said ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. “While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector – the investors’ darling for the past two years – is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround – albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.

Related articles

• 2014 Real Estate Forecast, but What About Now? (lanacordier.wordpress.com)
• Forecast Upbeat on Housing Recovery (susiecammett.wordpress.com)

The number of borrowers who are underwater on their mortgages has declined by more than 500,000 to date in 2010, but an additional 2.4 million borrowers were near negative equity (within 5 percent) in the third quarter. Negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.5 percent of all mortgaged residential properties at the end of the third quarter.

Negative equity was most prevalent in five states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and California.

Lesson learned!

With all the foreclosures and short sales going on, and all us Realtors trying so hard to help our clients, it amazes me how the banks try so hard to be as uncooperative as possible.  My latest experience in this involved a listing that I had been trying to sell for so long it turned out to be a record in our office!  My client had just lost her job and could no longer pay the mortgage payments.  I rushed to get a buyer so she would not foreclose.  We get into escrow all the inspections and FHA requirements have been passed, the buyers has signed the loan docs.   The seller has signed off the house……..We cannot get chase to send the payoff demand to escrow so we can close.   I requested the demand again and again by phone after the title and escrow company had sent in a written demand and got no response.  Every time I called I was on the phone with them for at least 40 mins. and 30 of those mins. I was on hold!  I asked to speak to a supervisor and was told there were none I could talk to.  Over and over I got various customer service reps. who told me they were very sorry it has taken so long and they would fax it to escrow in 24 to 48 hours…to no avail.  Mean while they were calling my client three times a day demanding to be paid, while the whole time I was calling three times a day trying to pay them.    I finally had to find the main number for chase in New York by looking online.   I called and was told by the executive resolution dept. that I would need to talk to the attorney that was assigned to the loan. ( you would think that after I had called 15 to 20 times that someone would have told me I needed to talk to the attorney????? )  Well, I called “customer service” back up asked to be given the name and number of the attorney assigned to the loan and low and behold I was given a name and number.  I called said name and number and was e-mailed the payoff  demand right then.   I don’t know, but I would think the banks would be more cooperative when someone is trying to pay them???

Among those who see improvement in the 2010 market is Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR). Yun hopes that the extension of the first-time home-buyer tax credit will provide a new pool of buyers to absorb the additional foreclosures that will hit the market this year.

He expects existing-home sales to rise 13.6 percent in 2010; home prices should go up 3 to 5 percent, with wide geographic differences. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages will range from 5.3 percent in the first quarter to 5.8 percent by year end. This forecast assumes there will be no major economic surprises. The weak job market remains a concern.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has a slightly different take on the 2010 housing market. MBA predicts existing-home sales will increase approximately 11.2 percent. Interest rates should be about 5.6 percent by the end of 2010. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 10.2 percent and gradually decline in 2011. National average home prices should stop sliding during the first part of the year and stabilize, depending on area and price range. 

In my office we have seen a marked improvement in the number of first time buyers calling for help buying a home.  I have been doing floor time (answering calls) and in the last five days I have acquired 5 new clients, one a day.

I have been answering a lot of questions from uninformed first time buyers on websites Like Homeresearch.com and Trulia.com, these sites have realtors who will answer real estate questions.  The majority of questions are regarding if one house or another is available.  They do not have a Realtor nor are they pre-approved……So I am writing this for the benefit of the many first time home buyers who do not know that their first step should be to find a Realtor they feel comfortable with.   The buyers Realtor is paid by the seller and so the expert help of an experienced Realtor comes at no cost to them. 

Their next step should be to obtain a pre-approval from their bank or other lender.  Without a pre-approval, any offer they submit will likely be ignored.  If they do not have a particular lender or bank they want to do business with their Realtor can help them with that as well.

The FHA has come up with some new rules when it comes to their loans. 

Beginning April 2010, the up front mortgage insurance will increase from 1.75% to 2.25%

There will be no more spot appraisals.  So it will be harder to get an approval on a condo. 

This is a big one.  Effective for all case numbers issued on or after February 1 of this year, all previous FHA condo approvals will be eliminated and condominium projects must be recertified by HUD.

You can pretty much forget about buying a condo until the project has been blessed by HUD or one of HUD’s approved lenders.

Going forward there will be two approval methods for FHA Case numbers ordered after February 1, 2010; 

Hud Review and Approval Process (H-RAP)

DE Lender-Approval and Review Process (DEL-RAP)

On another note>>> 
For all purchase contracts dated after February 1st, 2010, FHA has waived the flipping rule.
Private Sellers & Investors can now sell their properties to FHA buyers without having to wait 90 days.

Helping to energize the housing market is the reason behind the homebuyer tax credit and the recent extension and expansion.  Consumer spending is, of course, the real water for the nation’s economic growth, and a lot of consumer spending is fueled by the growing housing market,  along with new jobs, and confidence in our country’s rebound from the recession.