Dawn Rivera’s Fremont & East Bay Real Estate Blog

The worst U.S. recession in 70 years should end over the next three to six months, judging by recently released data that showed that the economy’s contraction eased considerably from April through June.

The Commerce Department reported that the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1% in the year’s second quarter, less than most analysts had expected, and far less than the dramatic 6.4% shrinkage in the first quarter, a figure revised downward from the initial estimate of 5.5%.

Independent economists think the economy now is poised to grow, albeit slowly.

The key point is that this is the last negative (growth) report in the Great Recession, signaling the end of the downturn. The economy won’t come charging back, but at it’s back.

Recent reports on improving home and auto sales also argue well for the near future. Leading indicators of activity are pointing up, and the housing sector appears to be stabilizing. As more stimulus dollars hit the street, we should see improvement in the difficult employment and financial conditions in many hard-hit regions of the country.

President Barack Obama credited the $787 billion economic stimulus plan that passed earlier this year for the emerging signs of recovery. “This and other difficult but important steps that we’ve taken over the last six months have helped us put the brakes on recession,” he said at the White House. “I am guardedly optimistic about the direction that our economy is going, but we’ve got a lot more work to do.”

There’s plenty that still can go wrong, I worry that we don’t have the foundations for a durable recovery, that we still have banks with large unrecognized losses. Layoffs were expected to continue throughout the year, with the jobless rate rising above 10%. That’ll test bank balance sheets. That’ll test business models generally. A lot of manufacturing and retail activity doesn’t look good when the unemployment rate is above 10 percent. 2010 remains a question, and nothing in these numbers tells you anything about 2010.”

In another worrisome sign, real personal-consumption expenditures fell 1.2% in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6% from January through March. Consumer spending powers two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Sales of durable goods-big-ticket items such as large appliances and wide-screen televisions-shrunk 7.1% from April to June after expanding at a 3.9% annual rate in the three previous months. Consumer spending is unlikely to return to pre-recession levels until the nation stops shedding jobs. That’s bad news for retailers and restaurants. I think consumers are going to need a little more proof. These are certainly welcome signs, but I think it is going to take a little more time before we see consumers shift from necessity to discretionary purchases.

The National Restaurant Association was equally cautious. Its latest outlook, said that June marked the 13th consecutive month of sales declines for restaurant owners. Restaurant operators continued to report declines in same-store sales and customer traffic in June, and their outlook for sales growth in the months ahead remains mixed.

All in all it is starting to look the like the end of the recession in is sight.

Hi all, have an older car or SUV now is your chance to get a vehicle that gets better gas mileage and get 4,500.00 from the government to do it!!

The governments Cash for Clunkers program (C.A.R.S.) began stimulating the economy a month before the first rebate check was cut to a consumer for a new vehicle. “Manufacturers and dealers have spent millions to reach consumers who qualify for the $4,500 government funded rebates,” said Sharon O’Connell from www.CashForClunkersInformation.org.

Big budgets have been activated to implement campaigns targeting clunker consumers who are eligible for the program and the early results suggest the returns will be worth the investment. “We predict that the annualized selling rate for July will exceed 10 million vehicles for the first time this year due to the government program bringing dormant consumers back into the market,” adds O’Connell. “We think August could do even better with a million or more sales due to increased demand from the CARS program.”

“The stimulus helps local markets more than national car companies because car dealers stimulate the local economy through their big advertising expenditures, job creation and enormous state tax revenue,” said O’Connell. “A small dealership who sells 100 vehicles a month spends an average of $500 per car in advertising, which is a total of $50,000 that is spent in local advertising.”

Courtesy Chevrolet, one of GM’s largest dealerships in the country, “bought new inventory, hired additional salespeople and increased our ad budget by 88%,” said Scott Gruwell. “We spent $200,000 on a targeted direct mail and Web campaign to every customer in our market and we launched a regional information portal called www.CashForClunkersDC.com,” said Vince Sheehy, owner of www.Sheehy.com in Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland and Baltimore. “So far we have sold over 100 vehicles while most dealers in our area are just getting started.”

Early Spenders are the Early Winners
Most of the economic activity generated up to this point has come from early spenders who also appear to be early winners in the race to reach clunker consumers. The winning retailers have been marketing to consumers for weeks while others are just getting started. Hyundai and a small group of dealer groups got a head start when they announced they would help consumers participate in the program starting on July 1st, while others were turning them away until the final rule was published on the 24th. The NHTSA and the National Automobile Dealers Assn. warned dealers against doing transactions before the final rules were announced on July 24th. Despite these warnings, Hyundai and a few dealers took the risk to help consumers get rebates when the law said they could. “Hyundai has attributed 10 percent of July’s sales to the program and some dealers have generated hundreds of incremental sales,” said O’Connell.

More than 70% of the clunkers were Ford or Chevy trade ins, 71% of the clunkers were SUVs, 93% had over 100k miles and 71% qualified for the $4,500 because SUV’s only need a 5 mpg improvement to get the full $4,500 rebate. The average clunker trade in gets 17 mpg and the average new vehicle gets 25 mpg, which is an average of an 8 mpg improvement.

Some dealers had over 100 orders by the time the final rule was announced and our customers appreciated the fact that we could help them when they were turned away by other dealers that weren’t ready,” said Sheehy. It turns out their strategy was not very risky because the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act clearly states that consumers were eligible for rebates starting July 1st.

RealtyTrac®, a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, has released its Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings – default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions – were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase in total properties from the previous six months and a nearly 15 percent increase in total properties from the first six months of 2008. The report also shows that 1.19 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 84) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 336,173 U.S. properties in June, the fourth straight monthly total exceeding 300,000 and helping to boost the second quarter total to the highest quarterly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005. Foreclosure filings were reported on 889,829 U.S. properties in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 11 percent from the previous quarter and a 20 percent increase from the second quarter of 2008.

“In spite of the industry-wide moratorium earlier this year, along with local, state and national legislative action and increased levels of loan modification activity, foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

“Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of
borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes’ are now worth represent
a potentially significant future risk. Stemming the tide of foreclosures is a critical component to stabilizing the housing market, so it is imperative that the lending industry and the government work in tandem to find new approaches to address this issue.”

Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
More than 6 percent of Nevada housing units (one in 16) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, giving it the nation’s highest foreclosure rate during the six-month period. A total of 68,708 Nevada properties received a foreclosure filing from January to June, an increase of 23 percent from the previous six months and an increase of 61 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in the first half of 2009, with 3.37 percent of its housing units (one in 30) receiving at least one foreclosure filing, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate, with 3.08 percent of its housing units (one in 33) receiving at least one foreclosure filing. Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were California (2.94 percent), Utah (1.46 percent), Georgia (1.42 percent), Michigan (1.34 percent), Illinois (1.31 percent), Idaho (1.26 percent) and Colorado (1.25 percent).

California, Florida, Arizona post highest foreclosure totals
A total of 391,611 California properties received a foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, the nation’s highest total and 2.94 percent of the state’s housing units (one in 34) – the nation’s fourth highest state foreclosure rate. California foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased nearly 14 percent from the previous six months and increased nearly 15 percent from the first half of 2008.

With 268,064 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009, Florida documented the second highest state total. Florida foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 7 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 42 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona’s 89,799 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009 was the third highest state total. Arizona foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 13 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 55 percent from the first half of 2008.Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Illinois (68,932), Nevada (68,708), Michigan (60,786), Ohio (58,937), Georgia (56,391), Texas (49,144) and Virginia (28,368).

Report methodology
The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the first half of the year at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population.

RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default – Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction – Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS) and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during six-month period, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.

The current economic crisis is having a lasting impact on many older Americans, forcing them to make difficult financial decision because they have so little time and resources available to them to recover from losses in the housing and financial markets.

A new survey from Golden Gateway Financial shows that these losses are causing many seniors to consider retiring at a later age than originally planned. The survey asked Americans aged 62-and-older how the economic crisis was affecting their retirement plans. Not surprisingly, the number of respondents planning to retire after age 70 because of the economic crisis increased substantially from those planning to retire at that age before the crisis.

“Even though some economists are beginning to grow optimistic, older Americans continue to feel real pain and must make hard trade offs and decisions,” said Eric Bachman, founder and CEO of Golden Gateway Financial. “This is the worst possible time for the 40 percent of seniors now considering delaying retirement to be searching for jobs. It’s unfortunate that the hopes and dreams of these retirees are being put on hold.”

Overall, the survey found that many seniors understand exactly how the economy is affecting their retirement finances and plans. It also illustrates the concern that many seniors have about the prospects for their continued ability to sustain retirement. Additional observations include:

- Before the economic crisis, 67 percent of respondents planned to retire before age 70
- Now, the number of seniors planning to retire by age 70 dropped to 40 percent
- Before the economic crisis, 30 percent of those surveyed planned to retire after age 70
- Now, almost 50 percent of seniors plan to retire after age 70
- More than 40 percent of seniors polled said the current economy has had some kind of negative affect on their ability to retire
- More than 50 percent of respondents said they are concerned that their overall net worth may no longer be enough to sustain their retirement
- 86 percent of seniors said they had a reasonable understanding of their net worth, and 50 percent said that net worth had declined by between 10 and 30 percent

The independent online survey, conducted with United Sample, Inc. (www.unitedsample.com) in partnership with Golden Gateway Financial, polled a nationwide representative sample of more than 500 senior citizens aged 62 or older. A complete list of questions and percentage answers are available at the Golden Gateway Financial website or by contacting the company.