Dawn Rivera’s Fremont & East Bay Real Estate Blog

After a recent spike seen in mortgage rates, some consumers are wondering whether they’ve missed their chance to refinance into an ultra-low rate. Fear not: While the conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a daily average of 5.81% last Thursday 06/18/09, it averaged 5.53% on Tuesday06/23/09, and it’s possible that rates could continue to fall. Predicting interest rates is like predicting who is going to win the World Series in January,I feel the recent spike is somewhat of an aberration, I expect rates will continue to drift down.

Why the recent run-up in rates? Over the past month or two, the economic skies have brightened somewhat, and the threat of trillion-dollar budget deficits for the foreseeable future, the potential for significant inflation, and few clues as to how the government might extricate itself from intrusions into markets created a landscape that was not appealing to investors.

Now, rates are retreating partly because inflation doesn’t seem as immediate as investors feared. In my opinion, nothing fundamentally has changed in the economy over recent weeks to warrant the rate rise, yet he expects volatility through the remainder of the year as investors debate the economy’s health. Realistically, I think that the rates will drift under 5% again. It may take a month, may take two months.

It’s also important, however, to realize that extremely low rates likely won’t be around forever. Luckily, we have seen rates drop some this week, which should help many consumers breathe a little easier. But the fact remains, the government’s plan of purchasing mortgage-backed securities cannot go on indefinitely, and when it ends, we will most certainly see a spike in rates. The hope is that the Fed can keep rates low long enough to kick-start a housing recovery. Whether that will work remains to be seen.

Happy thursday! here is some more info on the existing home sales. Some good some bad news.

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions

and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase

was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales-including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-rose 2.4 percent to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66

million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very

affordable even with a recent uptick in rates. First-time buyers also are being drawn off the

sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in

sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales

indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that

keep buyers from getting a loan.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale,

which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in

April.

The appraisal problem is serious. Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a

neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales. In the past

month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts

falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further

rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.

A NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29% of transactions, and that

the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago.

The NATIONAL MEDIAN existing-home price for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8% from a

year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33% of all sales in May from 45% in April,

continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to

traditional homes.

First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed

sales.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a

pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0% below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000

units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9% below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median

existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9% from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0% in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4% below May

2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4% lower than a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9%

below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9% from May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8%

higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6% from a year ago.

Hi loyal readers, here is some new market info for you. Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7% to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2% above April 2008 when it was 87.5.

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6% to 78.9 in April and is 0.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8% to 90.4 and is 11.1% above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2% to 93.0 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8% to 94.8 but is 2.9% below April 2008.

There are numerous buyer assistance programs around the country. Some states are offering bridge loans that allow first-time buyers to use the tax credit for downpayment and closing costs, but there are many other local government and nonprofit programs available to buyers, depending on location.

Just last week, HUD announced that qualifying buyers can use the tax credit for closing costs on FHA loans, to buy down the interest rate or make a larger downpayment. Buyers who are wondering about their options should contact a Realtor®, who can advise consumers on the housing assistance programs and resources available in a given area.

NAR’s (national asso. of realtors) Housing Affordability Index is in record territory. The affordability index rose to 174.8 in April from an upwardly revised 171.9 in March, and was the second highest monthly reading on record after peaking at 176.9 in January of this year. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income; tracking began in 1970.

A median-income family, earning $60,900, could afford a home costing $296,800 in April with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of that amount. The affordable price was well above the median existing single-family home price in April, which was $169,800.

The relationship between contracts on pending home sales and closings on existing-home sales is taking longer than in the past for several reasons, Mortgage processing time has increased, it is taking many months to close on those homes requiring short sales with lender approval, and some sales are falling through at the last moment.

The total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve but with dramatic local market variation in the timing of recovery. The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline.

For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org.

 The Obama Administration has announced efforts to help bring more relief to responsible homeowners under the Making Home Affordable Program. There has been an effort for greater affordability, for homeowners, by reducing interest rates on their second mortgages as well as a set of measures to help underwater borrowers stay in their homes. Treasury secretary Tim Geithner said “With these latest program details, we’re offering even more opportunities for borrowers to make their homes more affordable under the Administration’s housing plan.”  “Ensuring that responsible homeowners can afford to stay in their homes is critical to stabilizing the housing market, which is critical to stabilizing our financial system overall.”

The Second Lien Program, one of the new details, will work together with first lien modifications offered under the Home Affordable Modification Program to deliver a more conclusive, affordability solution for struggling borrowers. Second mortgages can create huge challenges, even when a first lien is modified. Up to 50% of at-risk mortgages have second liens, and many properties in foreclosure have more than one lien. The second mortgage always has a higher interest rate than the first lien.

Under the Second Lien Program, when a Home Affordable Modification is initiated on a first mortgage lien, servicers participating in the Second Lien Program will automatically reduce payments on the second lien according to a pre-set protocol. Alternatively, servicers will have the option to extinguish the second lien in return for a lump sum payment under a pre-set formula determined by Treasury.

Separately, the Administration has also announced steps to join the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) Hope for Homeowners with Making Home Affordable. Hope for Homeowners requires the holder of the mortgage to accept a payoff below the current market value of the home, allowing the borrower to refinance into a new FHA-guaranteed loan. Refinancing into a new loan below the home’s market value removes a borrower from a position of being “underwater” to having equity in their home. By increasing a homeowner’s equity in the home, Hope for Homeowners can produce a better outcome for borrowers who qualify.

Under the recently announced changes and, when qualifying borrowers for a Home Affordable Modification, servicers will be required to determine eligibility for a Hope for Homeowners refinancing. Where Hope for Homeowners proves to be viable, the servicer must offer this option to the borrower. To ensure proper alignment of incentives, servicers and lenders will receive pay-for-success payments for Hope for Homeowners refinancings similar to those offered for Home Affordable Modifications. These additional supports are designed to work together and take effect with the improved and expanded program under consideration by Congress. The Administration supports legislation to strengthen Hope for Homeowners so that it can function effectively as an integral part of the Making Home Affordable Program.

Making Home Affordable, a comprehensive plan to stabilize the U.S. housing market, was first announced by the Administration on February 18. The three part program includes aggressive measures to support low mortgage rates by strengthening confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; a Home Affordable Refinance Program, which will provide new access to refinancing for up to 4 to 5 million homeowners; and a Home Affordable Modification Program, which will reduce monthly payments on existing first lien mortgages for up to 3 to 4 million at-risk homeowners. Two weeks later, the Administration published detailed guidelines for the Home Affordable Modification Program and authorized servicers to begin modifications under the plan immediately. Twelve servicers, including the five largest, have now signed contracts and begun modifications under the program. Between loans covered by these servicers and loans owned or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, more than 75% of all loans in the country are now covered by the Making Home Affordable Program.

Continuing to bolster its outreach around the program, the Administration also announced a new effort to engage directly with homeowners via MakingHomeAffordable.gov. Homeowners will have the ability to submit individual questions through the website to the Administration’s housing team. Members of the Treasury and HUD staffs will periodically select commonly asked questions and post responses on MakingHomeAffordable.gov.

For more information, visit www.MakingHomeAffordable.gov.

Employers laid off 663,000 employees in March, this make 5 consecutive months of huge job losses, upping the total U.S. jobs lost in this recession to above 5 million and the unemployment rate is up four-tenths of a percentage point to 8.5%, according to the Labor Department.

Although the March job losses were high they were in line, with what economic forecasts had suggested.  This thankfully, provided some relief, that things aren’t worse than expected. That, and the fact that February job losses weren’t revised downwards, as previous months had been, suggests that layoffs may be flattening out.

Since jobs are a “lagging indicator,” the struggling U.S. economy will continue to shed them even after a turnaround has begun. Many economists think that the unemployment rate could top 10% this year, even if the condition of the economy begins to improve, as some indicators are starting to suggest.

Since December 2007, when the recession began, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the jobs being lost in the last five months.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.”

Manufacturers trimmed another 161,000 jobs in March; factory employment has fallen by 1 million over the past six months, the BLS said.

Both residential and commercial construction remains in the dumps, and builders axed another 126,000 jobs in March. The new twist is that commercial construction is beginning to suffer just as residential construction was hit last year.

“Unlike previous periods in this economic cycle, the bulk of job losses for the first quarter of 2009 were in the nonresidential sector as opposed to the residential sector,” according to Anirban Basu, the chief economist for Associated Builders and Contractors, an industry group. “This suggests that the residential construction sector is much closer to its bottom than is the nonresidential construction sector, which is a relative newcomer to the ongoing downturn.”

The government’s economic-stimulus spending should begin to ease some of the pain in the construction sector by encouraging infrastructure projects by late this year.

Spring has arrived! The weather’s warmer, the days longer and you seem to have a little more energy. Chances are some of that energy will be used for spring cleaning – window washing, closet cleaning or planting a garden. According to the CPA Society, it may also be smart to put a little of that energy into getting your financial house in order too.
Here are 5 ways to spruce up your finances:
1. Shake the plan.dust out of your financial  Have you looked at your goals lately? Have you been meeting them or not? If the hard times of the past few months have your financial plan on shaky ground, it may be time to rethink your goals and set new ones. Make sure everything is in order and the plan reflects any changes in your life over the past year.
2. Make your credit report sparkle. It’s important to get your credit clean and keep it that way, especially in today’s economy. Check your credit score (it’s free from each of the three main bureaus once a year or go to www.annualcreditreport.com) and clear up any discrepancies. Develop a plan to pay off your debt. Don’t cancel zero balance credit cards if you will be applying for a loan; keeping them open but inactive enhances your credit score.
3. Simplify. Review all of your open accounts - checking, money market and savings – and consolidate what you can. Have an account in another state? Close it. A 401(k) from a previous job? Roll it over to your current plan or IRA if it makes good sense under market conditions. Having as few accounts as possible will reduce confusion and help keep your finances in good health.
4. Be ready for a rainy day. I know It’s not easy these days to find any extra money in your budget, but… do what you can to put even a small amount away on a regular basis to build a rainy day fund. Now more than ever, having some cash on hand in case of a layoff, major home repair or other emergency is a good idea.
5. Get rid of the clutter. Determine what paperwork needs to be saved and what can be thrown out. It’s recommended that you keep your past IRS tax records for at least seven years and try to keep copies of the returns as long as you can as they may contain valuable information and may not be available from the IRS.
If you feel a little lost and don’t know where to start, contact a CPA (Certified Public Accountant). CPAs are more than just tax specialists; they can provide a broad range of guidance for the years ahead.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center finds that 20% of all homeowners-or 30% of mortgage holders-say that if they had to sell their home right now, it would sell for less than they owe. And homeowners who feel underwater on their mortgages report considerably more financial strain that those who do not.

Roughly 6 in 10 (61%) of those who say they are underwater on their mortgage are white, 12% are black and 18% are Hispanic. By comparison, 84% of mortgage holders who say their home would sell for at least the value of their mortgage are white, 6% are black and 6% are Hispanic.

Nearly a quarter (23%) of those who owe more than the current value of their home are under 30 years old, compared with just 10% of those who think they would at least break even if they had to sell today. Those who feel that they are underwater on their mortgage are also much more likely to have children under 18 living in the home than are mortgage holders who don’t feel that way (64% compared with 47%). Those who say their home is paid for tend to be older: 43% are 65 or older and 33% are ages 50 to 64. Consequently, relatively few (19%) say they have children younger than 18.

Overall, homeowners offer mixed ratings of their own personal finances. Nearly half (46%) say they are in excellent or good shape financially, and about the same number (52%) say they are in only fair or poor shape.

Among those who feel that their home would now sell for less than they owe on their mortgage, however, ratings of personal finances are considerably less positive. More than six-in-ten (63%) offer a negative assessment of their personal financial situation, while only 36% say they are in excellent or good shape. In contrast, a majority (54%) of mortgage holders who feel they would at least break even if they had to sell today say they are in excellent or good financial shape.

Mortgage holders who are underwater also are more likely to be suffering financially in other ways. They are more likely to have had trouble getting or paying for healthcare for themselves or their family (32% vs. 16% of those who are not underwater) and to report having been laid off (21% vs. 13%).

Nearly all (98%) of those who say their home would sell for less than they owe on their mortgage report having made reductions in spending or changes in their saving or investment patterns lately, as do most (86%) of those who say their homes would sell for more than the value of their mortgage. However, on any given cutback item- outside of adjusting retirement plans- those who are upside-down on their mortgages are at least 15 points more likely than those who are not to report cutting back. For example, 63% of mortgage holders who say they owe more than the value of their home report having delayed or canceled plans to make a major purchase for their household, compared with just 38% of those who do not owe more than the value of their home.

Although a substantial minority (19%) of those who feel underwater on their mortgages cite declining real estate values as their top personal financial worry, this concern runs a distant second to worries about the job situation. Nearly half — 47% — of those who feel upside-down cite jobs as their top concern.

While a plurality of mortgage holders who do not feel upside-down also mention jobs (38%), the second most cited concern among this group is problems in the financial markets (30%); only 11% of mortgage holders who are not underwater say their biggest concern is declining real estate values.

Today, President Barack Obama is expected to unveil a new "carrot-and-stick" approach to get banks and other lenders to better address soaring nationwide home foreclosures.

The plan He’s expected to announce will be to use $50 billion or more in Wall Street rescue money authorized last year, to provide subsidies for when banks reduce interest rates to lower the monthly payments for many Americans (who got into bad loans they did not understand or have lost their jobs due to the current bad economy ) who are now struggling to pay.

The plan, (to subsidize banks) which has yet to be formally announced, would serve as the carrot for banks to help homeowners stay in their homes and halt foreclosures, so there would not only be help to stop the losses for individuals and the banks, but also stop the foreclosures from dragging down the values of nearby homes.

The prevoius vountary efforts during the bush administration_Hope for homeowners and the federal Housing Administration’s FHA Secure that the banks joined have resulted in relatively few mortgage modifications.

Now the stick part, of the Carrot and stick approach is they will have a stick waved at them if they don’t comply with the subsidy plan. It will come in the form of Obama’s support for legislation pending in Congress that would allow bankruptcy court judges to modify the terms of a mortgage.

Right now that is forbidden, and banks and other lending institutions fiercely oppose what they call "cram down" legislation, saying that it willl bring uncertainty for lenders, who will respond by restricting mortgage lending.

If passed, it will mean that banks will have to soon choose between the lesser of two evils. They could either modify loans (with a subsidy) to provide lower lending rates, and lose what they might have made from the higher lending rate over the life of the loan. Or they can do nothing and a homeowner could file for bankruptcy and then have a judge order new loan terms that allow the borrower to stay in the home, and pay the lender less money.

The Obama administration isn’t providing details, but it promises a serious new approach.

"Ten thousand people face foreclosure every day in this country. And it’s a problem that not only affects the individual homeowner and their family, but oftentimes has a direct impact to home values in the neighborhood that that house or homes are on," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Tuesday. "This is a tremendously important part of what the president believes has to be done next in order to move our economy forward."

More than 2.3 million mortgages entered foreclosure proceedings last year, and by year’s end almost one in 10 mortgages in the U.S. were either delinquent or in foreclosure. Some prominent economists such as Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein think that one in five homes nationwide is worth less than the mortgage that was arranged to purchase

Dec. 12, 2008-Like many retirees, Marlene Laffoon, 73, watches in dismay as both her home’s value and her investments slide southward. And yet everyday costs for this former bookkeeper aren’t falling correspondingly.

So Laffoon’s spirits rose last month on an unexpected windfall of good news: Loan amounts on reverse mortgages have been increased and the fees decreased.

A reverse mortgage allows homeowners 62 or older to borrow up to $417,000 of their home’s equity to use any way they wish; the old limit was $352,790. They don’t have to repay it as long as they stay in the home.

Laffoon promptly asked her reverse-mortgage officer, Jerry Dawson at Frontier Bank in Everett, Wash., how much cash she could get if she took out a new reverse mortgage to replace the one she got several years ago.

"I really don’t want to touch anything in my investments now, and yet I can’t wait 10 years to have something to draw on," says Laffoon, who used funds from her original reverse mortgage to remodel the bathrooms and re-roof her Snohomish County, Wash., home of 43 years.

Reverse mortgages have been growing in popularity for some years now, with more than 100,000 homeowners nationally taking them out so far this year. They’ve been offered by private lenders, by quasi-governmental mortgage backer Fannie Mae and by the Federal Housing Administration.

Following the turmoil in the mortgage industry, both private-lender and Fannie Mae reverse mortgages have either ceased or cut back substantially, says Darryl Hicks, associate director of the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association in Washington.

That leaves the FHA as the biggest player on the block. It recently announced the new across-the-board national $417,000 limit for its reverse, called Home Equity Conversion Mortgage, or HECM for short.

"It’s going to allow those people who own higher-priced homes to access a lot more of the equity of their homes for whatever need they may have," notes Hicks.

A borrower’s age and home equity determine the amount of money available. There are no income or credit score requirements, and a homeowner who’s already had a reverse mortgage can get another.

The older the borrower, and the more equity they have, the more money they can pocket. They can take it in monthly payments, in a lump sum or as a line of credit to be drawn on as needed. The amount of a reverse mortgage has to be paid back once the homeowners move out of the house-even if the house isn’t sold.

The typical borrower is in his or her 70s. Getting a reverse mortgage doesn’t affect the borrower’s ability to get Social Security or Medicare.

A home needn’t be paid off for its owner to get a HECM reverse. However, the owner must pay off the outstanding mortgage balance as part of the process.

.The FHA requires counseling for those considering a reverse so they clearly understand the pros and cons.

The Urban League of Metropolitan Seattle is one of the approved counseling agencies. A. Linda Taylor, its housing director, says there are a lot of misconceptions about reverse mortgages, which counseling clears up.

A common fallacy: Homeowners who get a reverse mortgage are signing their house over to the government or a loan company. That’s incorrect; they still own it.

Another one: Owners will have monthly mortgage payments. That’s not true, nor can the seller (or the seller’s estate) ever owe more than the total loan amount (including interest, which can be either variable or fixed).

However, Taylor suggests that homeowners and their families consider the reverse issue carefully because getting one isn’t always the best answer.

The loan, which requires all the normal closing costs plus mortgage insurance, can be expensive relative to the amount borrowers get, particularly if they’re near the minimum limit of age 62 or they have little equity in their home.

And finally, a reverse may not be the best solution for a cash-strapped homeowner.

Taylor recalls an elderly man who came with his large family for counseling.

"He was worried to death" about his finances, she said, but also concerned that getting a reverse would use up home equity he’d hoped to leave to his children.

A frank family conversation revealed the man was struggling to secretly pay a family member’s bills. When they others learned of this, they prevailed upon that family member to stop relying on the elderly man for support.

They also did the repairs the man’s home needed, repairs that would have consumed his reverse mortgage money.

So in the end, he found he didn’t need a reverse mortgage at all.

A reverse mortgage, which allows homeowners to cash out some of their home’s equity, is available to those 62 and older who own and occupy a single-family house, a condominium, town house, co-op, manufactured home or two- to four-unit building. (Some limitations may apply.)

Consumer Reports magazine suggests homeowners educate themselves by visiting these websites:

AARP, at www.aarp.org has thorough information about reverse mortgages, plus a calculator that allows homeowners to estimate how much money might be available to them.

The National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association, at www.nrmla.org, has mortgage information, plus a list of approved lenders who subscribe to its code of ethics.

Housing and Urban Development, at www.hud.gov, has information plus a list of HUD approved housing counseling agencies.

Federal Trade Commission has information on its site, www.ftc.gov, as do some banks’ sites.

January 12, 2009-Less than 24 hours after members of the 111th Congress were sworn into office, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) launched an all-out effort to make housing a centerpiece of the massive economic stimulus package that lawmakers are expected to complete by mid-February.

More than 80 builders from across the country converged on Capitol Hill yesterday to meet with the congressional leadership and key members of the banking and tax writing committees to convey the message that a housing stimulus is urgently needed and that restoring demand for housing is the fastest and most effective way of reviving the economy.

The key ingredients to the recovery plan call for Congress to support enhancements to the home buyer tax credit, to provide below-market interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and to continue foreclosure prevention measures such as those advocated by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair.

Underscoring the urgency of the situation, in a briefing to builders before their meetings with lawmakers, NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn said: "Our industry stands at a crossroads and our efforts here today are vital to the housing industry’s ability to weather this storm and come out the other side healthy and in a position to grow."

"Congress must understand that housing is central to the economic crisis, that housing has led our nation out of past recessions and that it can do so again," she added.

"Over the next year, the stimulus plan will increase economic activity in every state as vacant homes are absorbed, households are able to relocate to new jobs, home values are stabilized and local property tax revenues return to their pre-recessionary levels," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

This year alone, Crowe said the plan would result in 200,000 additional new home sales, 1 million more existing home sales and a boost in expected housing starts from 649,000 to 908,000, on par with last year’s level.

In addition, the plan this year would create more than 539,000 jobs, generating $26 billion in wages and salaries, $21 billion in business income and $28 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues.

Under Bair’s plan, the federal government would provide $24 billion in loan guarantees that could help as many as 1.5 million home owners modify their existing mortgages and avoid foreclosure.

Putting the situation in starker terms, Crowe said that barring any significant federal action, 4 million strapped borrowers could lose their homes this year. "There are at least 1.5 million excess empty homes on the market today. That does not include homes people live in and want to sell," he said.

In order to stabilize the marketplace and put a floor under declining home values, NAHB and the Fix Housing First coalition are calling on Congress to pass short-term, targeted incentives that spur demand and encourage Americans to buy homes.

Specifically, a temporary, expanded home buyer tax credit is needed to reduce excess inventory and encourage fence sitters to enter the market. The Fix Housing First legislative proposal calls on Congress to enact a stimulus plan that would reduces mortgage interest rates to as low as 2.99% on 30-year fixed-rate conventional loans purchased between Jan. 1, 2009 and June 30, 2009. The interest rate would be 3.99% for contracts that close between July 1, 2009 and Dec. 31, 2009.

At the same time, lawmakers need to make the current $7,500 home buyer tax credit much bigger and better, eliminating its current recapture provision and making it available to all purchasers. The coalition is calling for a credit amounting to 10% of the home’s price, capped at 3.5% of local FHA loan limits. This would range between $10,000 and $22,000.

The key is basing the credit amount on prices in each locality.

"Obviously, you don’t need a $22,000 credit in Bozeman, Mont. but a $22,000 credit will just get you into the marketplace in California," said Howard.

The tax credit and interest rate buy-down are not new ideas, Howard added. "Congress enacted a similar housing solution in the mid-1970s when the nation was in recession. The plan led us out of recession then, and it can do it again."

Bolstering the visits to Capitol Hill, more than 17,000 telephone calls and e-mails in support of the Fix Housing First proposal were received by the Congress from members of NAHB and the coalition.

To learn more about the coalition, go to www.fixhousingfirst.com.