Hi All,  I am re-posting this article written by Steve Cook…..or is it Nick at nick does loans?  Either way it is well written and informative.  It sounds to me as if the buyers who are on the fence better jump off and jump in if they want to get in at the bottom…………

In two years Real Estate will rock!

Written by: Steven Cook

Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

• The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.
• Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;
• Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments;

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.

The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, said ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. “While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector – the investors’ darling for the past two years – is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround – albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.

Related articles

• 2014 Real Estate Forecast, but What About Now? (lanacordier.wordpress.com)
• Forecast Upbeat on Housing Recovery (susiecammett.wordpress.com)

Image via Wikipedia

Trying to decide how to get to your next vacation?  Should you fly, drive, take a train etc.?  Which one will be more cost effective.  which mode of transportation will leave a bigger carbon footprint?  Now you can go to www.cost2drive.com to find out!  First, you enter where you are leaving from and where you will be going.  Then you put in the year make and model of your car it will calculate  the cost.  You can even compare it to the cost of flying if your vacation trip is far away.

Related articles

• Fly or Drive? I can’t decide. Now I don’t have to (gadling.com)
• Summer Travel: What’s the Cheapest Way to Go? (bargaineering.com)

The number of borrowers who are underwater on their mortgages has declined by more than 500,000 to date in 2010, but an additional 2.4 million borrowers were near negative equity (within 5 percent) in the third quarter. Negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.5 percent of all mortgaged residential properties at the end of the third quarter.

Negative equity was most prevalent in five states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and California.

2. GET RID OF THE LEAD FOOT.  According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), quick acceleration and heavy braking reduce fuel economy by as much as 33% on the highway and 5%around town.  Give the lead foot a rest to improve your fuel efficiency and your passengers ride.  Difficulty: l

3. STOP IDLING.  Although most of us grew up needing to let the car “warm up” any car built after 1990 doesn’t need the warm-up, so go ahead and get a move on.   Difficulty: l

4.GIVE YOUR CAR A BREAK.   You may n0t be able to retire your car completely, but try to opt for public transportation, carpooling, walking or biking when you can, and you’ll save both money and carbon emissions.  For each gallon of gas you save, you keep 20 pounds of carbon dioxide out of the environment and nearly $5.00 in your wallet!  Difficulty: l

5. BE REASONABLE WITH THE THERMOSTAT.  You don’t have to be uncomfortable in your home to save energy or reduce emissions, but try to keep it as warm as you can stand it in the summer, and turn it down to 68 or below in the winter.  Difficulty: l

6, CAULKING AND STORM PANELS.  Double-paned wondows are are good fix but, a least expensive way to improve insulation, is to seal and leaks or gaps around doors and windows with caulking and weather stripping.  You can then add a storm panel to your single-pane window to increase energy efficiency for less money than double paned windows.  Difficulty: ll

7.SWAP YOUR A/C FOR A CEILING FAN.  Ceiling fans are remarkably effective in cooling and use far less energy (or chemicals!) than air conditioning.  If you still need a A/C, consider running it on low and using ceiling fans to circulate the cool air.   Difficulty ll

8. PLANT TREES.  On top of soaking up carbon dioxide, trees that surround your home can provide shading in the summertime, keeping your house cool and requiring less energy-intensive air conditioning.  Difficulty: ll

9.  GET YOUR DUCTS IN A ROW.  In addition to increasing your electricity bills and and your carbon foot print, faulty duct work can cause serious, life-threatening carbon monoxide problems in the home.  Check your ducts for air leaks.  First, look for sections that should be joined but have separated, and then look for obvious holes.  If you use tape,  to seal your ducts, use mastic, butyl tape, foil tape,or other heat-approved tapes (look for tape with the Underwriters Laboratories logo.)  Be sure a well-sealed vapor barrier exists on the outside of the insulation on cooling ducts to prevent moisture buildup.  Difficulty: lll

10. GO FOR DOUBLE-PANED WINDOWS.  According to the DOE, the typical family spends $1,300 a year on home energy bills.  If your windows are letting air in or out, some of that money is being wasted, as is the energy its paying for.  Double-paned windows are up to 40% more energy-efficient than standard windows, and could shave 10% to 25% off youe heating or cooling bill, on top of saving five tons of carbon dioxide emissions per household per year.  Difficulty: lll

DIFFICULTY SCALE:                                                  

l= No Pain, but Lots of Gain.

ll= Commitment and Consciousness Required Daily.

lll= You Will Soon Reap the Financial Rewards of your Herculean Efforts.

TO BE CONTINUED NEXT WEEK!

Among those who see improvement in the 2010 market is Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR). Yun hopes that the extension of the first-time home-buyer tax credit will provide a new pool of buyers to absorb the additional foreclosures that will hit the market this year.

He expects existing-home sales to rise 13.6 percent in 2010; home prices should go up 3 to 5 percent, with wide geographic differences. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages will range from 5.3 percent in the first quarter to 5.8 percent by year end. This forecast assumes there will be no major economic surprises. The weak job market remains a concern.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has a slightly different take on the 2010 housing market. MBA predicts existing-home sales will increase approximately 11.2 percent. Interest rates should be about 5.6 percent by the end of 2010. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 10.2 percent and gradually decline in 2011. National average home prices should stop sliding during the first part of the year and stabilize, depending on area and price range. 

In my office we have seen a marked improvement in the number of first time buyers calling for help buying a home.  I have been doing floor time (answering calls) and in the last five days I have acquired 5 new clients, one a day.

Helping to energize the housing market is the reason behind the homebuyer tax credit and the recent extension and expansion.  Consumer spending is, of course, the real water for the nation’s economic growth, and a lot of consumer spending is fueled by the growing housing market,  along with new jobs, and confidence in our country’s rebound from the recession.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-11-17/housing-and-economy-headed-for-sustainable-recovery-first-time-homebuyers-lead-the-way/#ixzz0YN46kqLc

when the economy gets bad and people get desperate, some people have no scruples and will try to scam any way they can.

If you are trying to get a mortgage, beware of online scams who are trying to just get your information so they can steal your identity and ruin your credit and your life. Also beware of brokers or lenders who tell you one rate and then give you another (higher rate). Be sure you do business with a “Realtor” or someone else you know and trust. Realtor’s have specific ethics they have to abide by.

Some people are already finding ways to scam the tax credit, and it makes it tougher for those of us who are trying to complete honest business transactions. keep heart there are good, honest, people who will help you get the mortgage you need.

Then I viewed my Active Rain site and read a blog by JP Lowry of Preferred Financial Funding, titled What are We Doing America? in which he VERY ADAMANTLY stated why the bill was Disgusting, Ridiculous & Entitled. I have to say after reading it there were some very good points. Now I am not sure where I stand and was wondering what other opinions were.

I am very happy for the families that will be able to keep their homes, but at what cost? I agree that some people bought homes that they knew they could not afford, but… the lenders let them. Also as tax payers have already bailed out the banks shouldn’t the money be used for what it was intended?

I think the Fed will throw everything in it’s arsenal towards keeping interest rates low throughout 2010. To do otherwise would be to sabotage an economy that has been both erratic and unstable, and would prove fatal in an election year. Though the government will prefer to fight looming inflation, doing so would simply cause the economy to nosedive; and I doubt they’ll be willing to take that risk.

While it may appear that home prices have stabilized, my guess is, they have not. I predict we’ll continue to see overall prices remain at their current levels and, in some areas, to decline well into next year. Foreclosures and short-sales will keep pressure on home prices for another 2 – 4 years. I cannot foresee how we can possibly have a significant resurgence in prices for at least 5 years, with prices not returning to 2005/2006 levels for a decade or more.

Foreclosures and short-sales will make up as much as 40% of total sales for the next 30 – 36 months. And the percentage could possibly be greater, depending upon how eager banks will be to put their inventory on the market. Their preference will be to pace their release to keep prices from plummeting, but the sheer numbers may make that impossible for some banks. Even after the supply begins to dwindle, the effect upon home prices will continue for at least another year.

Unless the government passes a major and all-inclusive tax credit, sales must remain sluggish. I don’t expect another housing incentive. There is little public support for throwing more billions at the problem, knowing that whatever increase might be realized, the benefit would be limited, temporary, and far too expensive.

By spring of 2012 interest rates will rise sufficiently to negatively impact home sales. While this is not the path that politicians would prefer, approaching a presidential election, it will be necessary to keep us from unbridled inflation. This potential scenario supports the premise for a continuing housing slump, extending into the following year and beyond.

Finally, the mid-term election will be both chaotic and unsettling. Both political parties will pull out the stops as never before, one attempting to hold on to past gains, and the other to regain past losses; and they will spend more money, make more promises, and sling more mud than ever before. Political maneuvering in the coming year will certainly impact both the housing market and the economy, but it’s impossible to know what politicians are willing to do in order to maintain or gain power. While they would like for us to believe that their plans can restore the economy, there’s little remaining in their arsenal that can have a significant impact.

While many will view these predictions as meaningless negative claptrap, my intention is to share what I both see and believe to be true. If I am able to help one person make a more prudent choice, then my efforts will have been worthwhile. Take this with the proverbial “grain of salt,” but if it proves beneficial, we’ve both gained in the process.

Written by the Housing Gruru.