Dawn Rivera’s Fremont & East Bay Real Estate Blog

Okay, I’m going to do something I normally avoid; I’m going out on a limb and publicize my housing predictions for 2010. While I occasionally discuss general trends and opinions about the market, I think it’s important for all of us to have as much information as possible in order to properly plan our futures. And while this is only my opinion, after all, it’s the only one I can offer; it’s based on 4 decades of experience combined with careful observations of current trends and conditions. Here is what I see the future of housing:

I think the Fed will throw everything in it’s arsenal towards keeping interest rates low throughout 2010. To do otherwise would be to sabotage an economy that has been both erratic and unstable, and would prove fatal in an election year. Though the government will prefer to fight looming inflation, doing so would simply cause the economy to nosedive; and I doubt they’ll be willing to take that risk.

While it may appear that home prices have stabilized, my guess is, they have not. I predict we’ll continue to see overall prices remain at their current levels and, in some areas, to decline well into next year. Foreclosures and short-sales will keep pressure on home prices for another 2 – 4 years. I cannot foresee how we can possibly have a significant resurgence in prices for at least 5 years, with prices not returning to 2005/2006 levels for a decade or more.

Foreclosures and short-sales will make up as much as 40% of total sales for the next 30 – 36 months. And the percentage could possibly be greater, depending upon how eager banks will be to put their inventory on the market. Their preference will be to pace their release to keep prices from plummeting, but the sheer numbers may make that impossible for some banks. Even after the supply begins to dwindle, the effect upon home prices will continue for at least another year.

Unless the government passes a major and all-inclusive tax credit, sales must remain sluggish. I don’t expect another housing incentive. There is little public support for throwing more billions at the problem, knowing that whatever increase might be realized, the benefit would be limited, temporary, and far too expensive.

By spring of 2012 interest rates will rise sufficiently to negatively impact home sales. While this is not the path that politicians would prefer, approaching a presidential election, it will be necessary to keep us from unbridled inflation. This potential scenario supports the premise for a continuing housing slump, extending into the following year and beyond.

Finally, the mid-term election will be both chaotic and unsettling. Both political parties will pull out the stops as never before, one attempting to hold on to past gains, and the other to regain past losses; and they will spend more money, make more promises, and sling more mud than ever before. Political maneuvering in the coming year will certainly impact both the housing market and the economy, but it’s impossible to know what politicians are willing to do in order to maintain or gain power. While they would like for us to believe that their plans can restore the economy, there’s little remaining in their arsenal that can have a significant impact.

While many will view these predictions as meaningless negative claptrap, my intention is to share what I both see and believe to be true. If I am able to help one person make a more prudent choice, then my efforts will have been worthwhile. Take this with the proverbial “grain of salt,” but if it proves beneficial, we’ve both gained in the process.

Written by the Housing Gruru.

Tired of paying rent, and enticed by a first-time home buyer tax credit, First time home buyers are scouring the cities of the east bay for a house to meet their needs. And they are already running out of time.

The federal tax credit for first-time buyers is “a huge motivator” for these buyers, and they may end their search if the Nov. 30 deadline arrives and they still have not closed on a deal.

Timing is everything for many first-time buyers today. For those who purchase a home this year, the tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price, up to $8,000. Those who have owned a home in the past three years aren’t eligible. Buyers also have to meet eligibility requirements regarding income; the current credit begins to phase out for singles who make more than $75,000 and couples who make more than $150,000.

Unless it is extended, this credit will expire on Nov. 30. We are seeing an increase in buyers wanting to get closed prior to the tax credit closing deadline. there is also an increase in sellers wanting to get their homes on the market and closed by this deadline.

Some real-estate agents and mortgage brokers are recommending that first-time buyers close no later than the week before Thanksgiving to ensure that no holiday-related office closings or abbreviated schedules interfere with the process. That means finalizing a purchase on or before Nov. 20. In fact, to make sure you can take advantage of the credit, it’s probably best to go under contract no later than the first or second week of October.

The National Association of Realtors reports that it’s taking about two months to complete a home sale in the current market, as lenders scrutinize borrower paperwork and issues with appraisals pop up. In short, first-time buyers probably need to select a property and make an offer by the end of this month. But rushing to meet the deadline is a double-edged sword. The purchase of a home—let alone your first one—isn’t a decision that should be taken lightly.

For buyers who don’t make the deadline, there is a chance the credit will be extended. There are at least 20 bills drafted regarding the credit; one-third of them have been introduced recently. Some proposals would not only extend the first-time buyer credit into next year, but would also expand it to include all home buyers, remove income restrictions and raise the maximum amount of the credit, up to $15,000.

By including all buyers, there could be more of a ripple effect as more Americans spend money on moving vans, lawn equipment — any items or services associated with making a move. NAR has been lobbying heavily for the extension. “The first priority is going to be to renew the $8,000 credit, but we have some good arguments for expanding it,” said Jerry Giovaniello, senior vice president and chief lobbyist for NAR. He argues that the credit doesn’t cost much but has a huge impact.

There is growing Capitol Hill support for the extension of the credit. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said it needs to be extended by the end of the year, according to a spokesman from his office. And Washington Research Group, a unit of securities firm Concept Capital, recently put the chance of extension at 60 percent.

Yet with Congress currently focusing on other issues, and concerns about the country’s rising deficit, some wonder how difficult it will be for housing to garner attention anytime soon.

If you’re a first-time buyer, however, waiting is a gamble. What you have in front of you now is a tax credit. After that, you don’t know what you have.

NAR estimates that about 1.8 million to 2 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the tax credit this year, and says that roughly 350,000 sales wouldn’t have taken place without the credit.

In the state of California you can apply for two different tax credits one from the state Gov. and one from the Federal Gov.

The federal Gov. is giving a tax credit in the amount of 10% of the sale price or 8000.00 which ever is less.

The state of California is giving a tax credit in the amount of 5% of the sale price or 10,000.00 which ever is less.

Neither is a loan nor does it have to be repaid.

What’s the catch, you ask? Well the federal tax credit has a limit on the income amount on the buyer can earn 75,000 for a single taxpayers and 150,000 for married taxpayers. Also, they must be first time buyers and purchase the home between 01/01/2009 and 12/01/2009

The state tax credit does not have a limit on your income, but it does require you to be purchasing a newly built home, between 03/01/2009 and 03/01/2010. the credit is not a loan as long as the home remains your primary residence for two years.

Home buyers can tap both programs and get a possible 18,000 tax credit, but time is running out to cash in on the opportunity. California set aside 100 million for the program and it is depleting faster than expected. Also the end of the federal program (12/01/2009) is fast approaching. Home buyers who don’t act now could end up out of luck…..

Buying a home

Homebuyers can make the most of several tax breaks that help lower their tax bill based on the purchase of an existing or new home. For instance:
-First-time homebuyers: The Recovery Act provides a credit of up to $8,000 if a taxpayer buys a home between Jan. 1, 2009 and Nov. 30, 2009. The homebuyer also must not have owned a home in the previous three years and the home must be the primary residence.
-Points: The points paid on a mortgage are generally deductible as interest if taxpayers paid enough of a down payment or earnest money at closing to cover the points. Homebuyers can deduct the points even if the seller paid them.
-PMI premiums: Buyers who make a down payment of less than 20% of the home’s cost usually pay private mortgage insurance (PMI). But the PMI premiums generally can be included in your home mortgage interest deduction.
-Job relocation: Taxpayers who moved due to a job change can deduct the cost of moving. In order to take the deduction, they must move within one year of starting the new job, work full-time at least 39 weeks during the first 12 months at the new location, and the new job must be at least 50 miles further than the old residence was from the old job. Qualified moving expenses include your out-of-pocket cost of moving yourself, your family, and belongings to the new location.

Owning a home

If a taxpayer typically has claimed the standard deduction, owning a home will likely mean itemizing for extra deductions. Some tax breaks for homeowners include:
-Mortgage interest: For most taxpayers, the biggest tax break comes from deducting mortgage interest. Taxpayers can deduct interest on up to $1 million of the loan used to buy, build, or make substantial improvements to a main or second home. Interest on a home equity loan up to $100,000 secured by the main or second home is deductible too.
-Real estate taxes: Taxpayers can deduct real property taxes they pay on real estate to their municipalities, whether made directly or through their lending company.
-Home improvements and energy credits: The Recovery Act gives incentives to homeowners making improvements and energy-efficient upgrades to their homes. Taxpayers can get credits for 30% of the cost of qualifying doors, windows, HVAC, water heaters, roofing and insulation, up to a maximum credit of $1,500. Solar energy and wind energy systems are each 30% of cost with no maximum.

Selling a home
Sellers won’t have to pay taxes on a profit up to $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for joint filers. Taxpayers must have lived in the home for at least two of the past five years to claim this exclusion. In some cases, taxpayers can claim a partial exclusion if they are selling due to a change in employment status, health reasons, divorce or other unforeseen circumstances.

Taxpayers whose homes were foreclosed may be able to exclude the mortgage debt that was forgiven in connection with the foreclosure. This provision applies to debt forgiven in calendar years 2007 through 2012, of up to $2 million is eligible for this exclusion ($1 million if married filing separately).

The U.S. housing market continues to show signs of stabilization with a drop in the number of Multiple Listing Service (MLS)-listed homes for the twelfth consecutive month. The number of single family homes and condos listed for sale according to MLS data decreased in June 2009 from May by 2.1%, bringing the total number of active listings in 28 major U.S. markets to 696,858.

Other highlights from ZipRealty’s Housing Inventory Index, compiled from local Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data, for June 2009 include:

-Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix all recorded a decline in inventory which may have contributed to some homes receiving multiple bids.
-Median list prices have flattened or increased in Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, pointing toward stabilization in those areas.
-While South Florida has substantially fewer homes for sale than last summer, housing inventory there is plentiful. For example, Miami has 27.1% more homes listed for sale compared to Los Angeles even though Miami has a significantly smaller population than Los Angeles.
-California is seeing the most dramatic inventory declines with massive year-over-year inventory reductions: Los Angeles saw a 53.9% decrease year-over-year while Bakersfield/Fresno tracked a 56.2% decrease.
-Several major metros that have been hit hardest by foreclosures had limited inventory in June 2009, which is at levels not seen or experienced in years.

“‘Affordability’ has been the buzz word in real estate this summer, and with a significant number of listed homes bank-owned, we’re seeing instances in some areas of banks dropping prices to generate more offers from buyers,” said Zip RealtyZip Realty President and CEO Patrick Lashinsky. “If the number of home listings continue declining and buyer interest and activity remains strong, we should see sales prices and home values increase as we head into the fall.”

In these economic times, the decision to purchase a home has become a very serious consideration, with cost of ownership in both the short and long term being in the forefront of the buyer’s mind. One of the most important factors consumers should consider when buying a home is its energy efficiency rating, as this can add up to substantial savings over the life of the home. Today’s energy efficient manufactured home is no different from any other home, except it has been built off-site, usually in a controlled factory environment, using the latest in energy efficient technologies. Coupled with a lower cost per square foot as compared to site-built homes, today’s manufactured home is a smart investment for savvy homebuyers.

Each manufacturer may have a different label, but one that stands out is the Energy Star designation. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) created the Energy Star logo as the symbol for energy efficiency because of the direct link between wasted energy and air pollution. Manufacturers and builders voluntarily display the logo on products and new homes that meet or exceed high energy efficiency guidelines. Some of these everyday products include heaters, air conditioning units, household appliances, residential light fixtures, and new homes. The Manufactured Housing industry is proud to display this designation on its quality homes.

By implementing these standards into the construction of today’s manufactured home, consumers and builders alike can reap the benefits of energy efficient housing solutions, further emphasizing a manufactured home is not any different when it comes to energy efficiency. Manufacturers who utilize energy efficient light fixtures and appliances show that they are doing their part to help preserve and protect our precious natural resources, while offering the consumer significant savings on their utility bills. Combined with an almost 30% savings on heating, cooling and hot water, manufacturers make it possible for the consumer to afford more home, due to the lower cost per square foot that is inherent to the factory construction process.