Dawn Rivera’s Fremont & East Bay Real Estate Blog

Hi All,  I am re-posting this article written by Steve Cook…..or is it Nick at nick does loans?  Either way it is well written and informative.  It sounds to me as if the buyers who are on the fence better jump off and jump in if they want to get in at the bottom…………

In two years Real Estate will rock!

Written by: Steven Cook

Housing starts will nearly double and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation’s economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

• The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.
• Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;
• Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments;

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.

The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, said ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. “While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector – the investors’ darling for the past two years – is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround – albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.

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Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

President Barack Obama on Wednesday announced a sweeping plan to help underwater homeowners refinance into lower-interest loans, but funding for the proposal must be approved by a combative Congress, lowering the possibility that it will help anyone soon.

The refinancing program would be a major source of relief for the many Bay Area homeowners whose loans are for amounts higher than the value of the home but are not held by two government-sponsored entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Operated by the Federal Housing Administration, the plan would allow underwater homeowners to refinance into cheaper federally insured loans up to $729,750 — the FHA’s conforming loan limit in the Bay Area. Borrowers with good credit who are current on their loan payments are eligible.

Since a highly partisan Congress must approve $5 billion to $10 billion in funding, housing experts were skeptical about it passing this year, but they praised its objectives.

“We’re supporting it because it will help to stabilize an already difficult housing market,” said LeFrancis Arnold, president of the California Association of Realtors.

“It is a big deal for homeowners here who can’t qualify under normal criteria,” said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley. “A lot of people would take advantage of this if it were up and running.”

The measure also streamlines the process of refinancing an underwater mortgage, eliminating the need for an appraisal or submitting a new tax return.

Upside-down and out

Obama announced the plan in a speech in Fairfax, Va., saying it would save an average $3,000 a year per borrower. “No more red tape,” Obama said. “No more runaround from the banks. And a small fee on the largest financial institutions will make sure that it doesn’t add to the deficit.”

The plan will help “millions of responsible homeowners,” Obama continued. “If you’re ineligible for refinancing just because you’re underwater on your mortgage, this plan changes that. You’ll be able to refinance at a lower rate, saving hundreds of dollars a month you can put back in your pocket.”

To qualify, borrowers must be current on their mortgage, have a minimum credit score of 580, and they must be refinancing a loan on a single-family, owner-occupied principal residence. Lenders only need to confirm that the borrower is employed. Loans that are more than 140 percent of the home value probably would not qualify until banks wrote down part of the balance.

“There are so many people that could be helped” by the new plan, said Cathy Warshawsky, a San Jose mortgage broker and officer in the California Association of Mortgage Professionals. “They are people who are making lots and lots of money, who purchased homes that are now upside-down. They are making enough money to be able to pay their mortgages, but nobody will refinance them. If we drop their mortgage payment, they are going to go out there and spend money, buy cars and washing machines.”

Congressional clash

Mortgage market and housing analysts were doubtful that the plan will become a reality this year.

“The goal of the program is good,” said Kevin Stein of the California Reinvestment Coalition who is also concerned about Congress. “Whether they can reach the goal is another question.”

Dustin Hobbs of the California Mortgage Bankers Association called the plan “a positive sign,” but added that “the proposal is a long way from being a reality, so at this point it’s tough to say what the end result would be.”

The proposal to pay for the program with a tax on large banks will likely be dead on arrival at a fiercely partisan Congress in an election year, noted Ed Mills, a financial policy analyst with FBR Capital Markets in Washington, D.C.

The White House also announced several other measures to shore up the housing market, several of which were announced by Obama in his State of the Union address. The measures include a “homeowner bill of rights” to protect borrowers from hidden fees and penalties and provide an appeal process for families fighting “inappropriate” foreclosure; a pilot program to transition foreclosures into rental housing and a program to rehabilitate neighborhoods hit by foreclosures.

Property Taxes Icon (Photo credit: danielmoyle)

Declining house values create great opportunities for homeowners to contest their property tax bills and potentially save big money.

Each jurisdiction has its own rules, procedures and deadlines to appeal property taxes. The bottom line is that a little research, communication and patience can pay off when you fight a property tax bill………….

I have helped many of my friends and clients to get their property tax reduced.  They were able to find the form needed on the county website.  I then used my MLS to find recent sold comps so they could put them on the form and send it in to the county tax collector.  If the comps support it you can get the value of your home reduced to reflect the current value, which will in turn reduce your Property Taxes!  ……….Make sure you do it yourself or have your Realtor help you.  There are people out there looking to scam where ever they can and this is an area where they will get you to pay them an over the top fee to do what you can easily do yourself.

Related articles

• How To Calculate Property Taxes (answers.com)
• ConsumerWatch: Lowering Property Taxes While Paying Higher Fees (sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com)

National Assciation of Realtors, Washington, D.C., United States (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® is predicting existing-home sales will jump 7 to 10 percent in 2012 to the highest level in five years, based on an “uneven but higher sales pattern” so far this year.

Pending home sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from January to February, which was up 9.2 percent from the same time a year ago, NAR said in releasing its latest Pending Home Sales Index.

NAR also reported a similar trend for existing-home sales, which were down 0.9 percent from January to February, but up 8.8 percent from a year ago.

The pending sales data released today provides a glimpse into more recent trends, because it tracks homes that were under contract in February — deals that will in most cases be finalized within one or two months.

NAR said 31 percent of REALTORS® experienced contract failures in February, in some cases because buyers’ mortgage applications were rejected or because appraisals came in below the negotiated price.

In the Northeast, NAR’s index slipped a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from January but was up 18.4 percent from a year ago.

The Midwest saw a month-over-month gain of 6.5 percent and a 19 percent gain from a year ago.

Pending home sales fell 3 percent in the South from January to February, but were up 7.8 percent from a year ago.

In the West, the index declined 2.6 percent from January to February and was 1.8 percent below the index rating in February 2011.

In its latest economic forecast, NAR predicts existing-home sales will total 4.65 million in 2012, up 9.1 percent from last year. That forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.3 percent annual rate and add 2.7 million jobs this year

Related articles

• Existing Home Sales Up Strongly From a Year Ago, Slightly Down from a Month Ago (eyeonhousing.wordpress.com)
• Pending Home Sales Index Up Over Year, Down Slightly in February (eyeonhousing.wordpress.com)

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The Obama adminstration announced broad outlines of the revised Home Affordable Refinance Program, on Oct. 24th.   Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issued guidance last week that filled in most of the details.

Making sense of the story.

HARP 2 greatly reduces or eliminates the risk-based fees Fannie and Freddie charge on many loans and virtually eliminates the chance that lenders will have to pay for losses on loans that go into default if they made underwriting mistakes.  It also vastly streamlines the underwriting process.

Although lenders can begin taking applications Dec. 1, it could take several months before the new loans are made.  Frannie Mae said it won’t begin buying certain types of refinanced loans until March.

To qualify, the existing loan must have been sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac on or before May 31, 2009.  the loan balance must be more than 80% of the homes market value.  The loan must be current for the last six months, with no more than one late payment in the last 12 months.  Those who previously refinanced through HARP are ineligible.

The new program improves on the existing HARP refi program by letting borrowers refinance into a new fixed-rate loan regardless of how much is owed.  The existing program caps the new loam at 125% of the homes market value.

Read More: http://www2.realtoractioncenter.com/site/R?i=P_3LpPM4O7vB0bC4VAA0JQ

Related articles

• Will changes to HARP really help? (avidlawblog.wordpress.com)
• Realty Q&A: How to find out who owns your mortgage (marketwatch.com)

Mortgage rates have been hitting historic lows for five weeks in a row. But
that doesn’t mean you should refinance your mortgage just yet.

The average rate for 30-year-fixed-rate mortgages fell to 3.94% for the week
ended Oct. 6, according to mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac—the lowest on
record. Rates on 15-year loans, meanwhile, have fallen to a record low of 3.28%.

While mortgage rates vary by region even among the nation’s biggest lenders,
they are down throughout the country for borrowers with excellent credit.
Citigroup, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, is pitching a 4.193% rate on
30-year-fixed loans and a 3.806% rate for 15-year-fixed mortgages. EverBank
Financial of Jacksonville, Fla., is offering Cincinnati-area residents a 3.89%
rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans.

Steve Walsh, who heads mortgage lender Scout Mortgage in Scottsdale, Ariz.,
says he has seen a surge in interest among borrowers looking to take advantage
of low rates. “There’s a feeling that rates are basically at the lowest they can
get,” he says. But are they?

No one can predict the future, of course, but policy makers seem intent on
pushing rates down even further.

The Federal Reserve, for example, is trying to move rates lower by buying
more mortgage-backed securities. And Obama administration officials are talking
to lenders about ways to reinvigorate the Home Affordable Refinance Program, a
government initiative to help borrowers refinance even if they have little or no
equity left in their homes.

The goal for both: to get rates low enough so that more people will find it
beneficial to refinance. If people start doing it en masse, it could help the
economy.

“In the short term, rates could fall,” says Brad Hunter, chief economist for
Houston-based Metrostudy, a housing-market research firm. “In the longer term,
rates will rise as the economy starts to strengthen.”

If that were to play out, then refinancing now, with rates still around 4%,
could be a mistake. That’s because the chances are good that if you own a home,
and have significant equity in that home and good credit, you already have
refinanced in the past few years. Because refinancing involves costs—typically
2% of the mortgage value—it often doesn’t pay to refinance every time rates tick
down, tempting though it is.

“Don’t become a refinance junkie,” says Greg McBride, a senior financial
analyst at Bankrate.com, a consumer-information site. “You pay for it later in
the form of closing costs.”

So how far do rates need to fall before it makes sense for you to refinance?
Economists at the University of Chicago have tried to answer the question.

The ideal refinance rate must factor in closing costs, marginal tax rates,
the number of years left on the mortgage and other factors, the economists say.
Homeowners often make decisions based on faulty assumptions about rates, says
David Laibson, an economics professor at Harvard University and one of the
Chicago study’s authors. “Mortgage rates follow what we call a random walk, and don’t bounce back from
lows like most people assume,” he says.

In other words, what goes down could keep going down—even if it goes up for a
little while first. If you catch the first big dip, you can miss later ones that
offer even better opportunities.

The economists produced an online calculator, at zwicke.nber.org/refinance/, that distills their theory into a
tool that calculates how far interest rates need to fall for homeowners to
derive value from refinancing—the “optimal” refinance rate.

For example, their formula suggests that a homeowner with a $400,000 mortgage
with 25 years left on a 30-year-fixed rate mortgage at 4.75% shouldn’t refinance
until rates fall to below 3.51%, assuming 2% closing costs.

The risk of waiting for a lower rate, of course, is that it will never come.
If you are unwilling to take the gamble, your best bet is to negotiate hard on
fees.

The conventional wisdom is that it doesn’t make sense to refinance unless you
can shave at least a point off your interest rate. That’s because you don’t want
your “break-even” point—when your savings exceed your refinancing costs—to be
longer than two years or so.

But if you can persuade your lender to waive the fees, or most of them, you
might need only a half-point of savings to make a deal worthwhile, says
Bankrate.com’s Mr. McBride.

Last week, Michael Allison refinanced his $417,000 mortgage on a
three-bedroom California Ranch-style house in Santa Barbara, Calif. The
41-year-old fitness-center owner says he will save $200 a month by switching
from a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.87% to one at 4.25%.

“It’s an absolutely great deal and didn’t cost me anything,” Mr. Allison
says. His lender, Provident Savings Bank in Pleasanton, Calif., covered the
closing costs after his real-estate agent made some calls to the firm.

With a little negotiation, homeowners can persuade lenders to cover their
fees. “It’s not a free lunch,” Mr. McBride says, because borrowers get slightly
higher rates in exchange—but it is a good way to minimize your upfront
costs.

Another option that’s growing in popularity: refinancing a home at a shorter
term—say, 20 or 15 years. If you can find a rate that keeps your monthly payment
about the same as you were paying on your old 30-year loan, the decision is a
no-brainer, says Mr. Walsh of Scout Mortgage.

Lloyd Qualls, a 57-year-old accountant in Mesa, Ariz., decided to do just
that. Last month he ditched his 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4.875% for a 15-year
fixed-rate loan at 3.375%. While that boosted his payments by $89 a month, it
will shorten his payment period by 13 years and save him $104,233 on interest
over the life of the loan.

I was reading a news letter today written by Broderick Perkins and he was writing about a new program to help distressed home owners.  The “Emergency Homeowners’ Loan Program (EHLP)”   There is a deadline to sign up for the help of 7/22/11  so if you are a distressed home owner, hurry and complete a “Pre-Application Screening Worksheet” by July 22, 2011 to earn eligibility for a spot in a random lottery.

Read the entire article here: http://www.mortgagematch.com/news/mortgage-types/ehlp-helps-distressed-homeowners-1443/

Go to the government website here:  http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/sfh/hcc/ehlp

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Trying to decide how to get to your next vacation?  Should you fly, drive, take a train etc.?  Which one will be more cost effective.  which mode of transportation will leave a bigger carbon footprint?  Now you can go to www.cost2drive.com to find out!  First, you enter where you are leaving from and where you will be going.  Then you put in the year make and model of your car it will calculate  the cost.  You can even compare it to the cost of flying if your vacation trip is far away.

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The Water quality Association estimates that 4 out of 10Americans use a home water treatment unit.  Even though ACWD delivers high quality drinking water that meets or exceeds all state and federal drinking water standards,many individuals in the service area use their own water treatment units at home.  One of the most commonly used home water treatment units is the point-of-use filter.  These filters are commonly utilized inside a water pitcher, installed under the sink, attached to a facet or on the water/ice line for the refrigerator.

In general, home water filters can be effective at improving the taste of water, and some will also reduce lead and other contaminants.  Home water filters are made by numerous manufacturers and use a variety of filter materials.  The most common material is activated carbon.  Activated carbon is extremely porous; the pores enable the carbon to bond with contaminants and trap them.  It is important to remember that activated carbon filters must be replaced periodically because the can become plugged; once the filters adsorptive capacity is used up, no further contaminant removal occurs.  Think of it as a parking lot: once all the spots are taken no one else can park there.

As with any water treatment unit, activated carbon cannot remove all possible drivking water contaminants.  Because activated carbon systems are limited in the types of compounds they can effectively remove, it is essential that you determine what you are trying to remove before purchasing such a system.  To help determine what contaminants a given water treatment unit will remove. look for a certification from the California  Department of Public health (CDPH).  CDPD certification means that the deivce has been tested to:

1. verify the manufacturer’s health-realted performance

2. ensure the materials used within the device do no add contaminants.

This information came from the Alameda County Water District news letter.

I just wanted to send a small shout out to people buying short sales….
The short sale process has been refined by the banks in the last two years. That being said they will still take at least 8 weeks for you to get the written approval from the bank so you can move ahead with the purchase. I have recently had a realtor tell me that for his short sales he requires the buyer to have an addendum that locks them into the purchase for at least 90 days, and if they do not want to they can “go pound sand” well, I am not sure that is the way to go but I do think the buyers need to be aware that it takes approx 8 weeks to get an approval from the bank when you are using the equator system ( website set up for B of A, and now wells fargo and a few others) When you are going the call and wait route it could be a bit longer. When the buyer makes an offer, the listing agent will take the best and highest offer to upload to the bank. When they do they must mark the listing pending subject to lender approval. The agent will then begin the task of getting the offer accepted by the bank and it investors. When the buyer backs out after 6 or 7 seven weeks (for no reason) or because they continued to search for a home and found one they like better, the listing agent has worked to close the sale for nothing and has to go back to the MLS get a new offer and start over! So, buyers do not make an offer on a short sale property unless you are commited to buying the property and are willing to see the short sale process through. You waste everyones time, including your own.